100NL Calling Re-raises OOP... How bad is this?

[You're No Daisy]

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Surely, someone has created a formula for this sort of thing by now...one where you can quickly plug in stack sizes, your pocket pair, and "the stacking probability when you hit your set" to get a quick, rough +/- EV calculation. If not, that seems like a pretty awesome project for someone much less lazy than me.

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I'm in IT at Ford and me and one of my guys are going to create a spredsheet for this. I'd like to start on it next week. If anyone is interested, let me know some of the features you'd like to see or how it should initially be set up by PMing me. We are thinking about calling it the EV Calculator.

You would basically plug in the percentage that you make your hand (i.e. set, boat, FD, OESD, etc.) and the size of the bet you're facing or have to make. I think I could use some of the scenarios in the NLHETP book to get examples of calculations.

AC

[Mingdu]

ICM calculators are available now ... is that what we are talking about? STT forum is full of this stuff

[grouchie]

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Many here are over estimating our chances to win the pot once we flop a set. While set over set will happen less than 10% of the time when we flop ours, if we get villain's stack in the middle 100% of the time, then he will always get to see the turn and river. That brings our win percentage when we hit our set closer to 80%, which means that we get stacked around 20% of the time we think we hit the jackpot. That means if we "get his stack" 100% when we hit our set, it's only as good as getting his stack 60%. And this has to be considered the best case scenario.

So we lose $93 20% of the time = -$18.6
And we win $117 80% of the time = +93.6
For a net gain of $75 when we hit our set
Which happens 11.76% so if we call we make $8.82
Which is $2 less than $11

So yeah, fold.

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I think in my OP I put that if this were just heads up then it would definately be a fold, we are not deep enough to call his RR.

However, the 3rd guy, who called 15 cold has to have some effect on weather or not we can make this call profitably.

I really just don't know the equations or any type of quick calculation to figure out if it's ok to make the call since we have another guy tagging along in the hand.

Just based on the fact that another person with nearly a full stack came along, does this make it worth a call because if you hit your set you can almost always stack the re-raiser who probably has at least QQ+ and the guy who's tagging along you probably get some sort of money out of him most of the time as well if he was willing to call such a large bet cold pre flop.


I never had these issues until I started raising all my smaller PP's early man...

but thanks everyone for the discussion so far, it's given me a good amount to look at and think about