Total Bases Props

[gtrunner57]

I got home late for tonight's games, but I see value in two for the after 7:30pm games tonight.

I have:
Holliday +1/2 at -160 at 63.5%
Konerko +1/2 at -155 at 62.0%

[gtrunner57]

Sorry, those are against Giles of San Diego and Swisher of Oakland.

Let me say a little more about these picks. They are based on several factors that I believe are all important in handicapping this type of event.

They are based on an analysis of projections for the park-adjusted rate of opposing starting pitching and bullpens at giving up home runs and other non-home run hits. The opposing pitchers' projected WHIP, the quality of the lineup, and likely position in the lineup is considered in determining a projected number of plate appearances. The batter's rate of getting certain types of hits per plate appearance, the park factors, home team, and the previously mentioned aspects of opposing pitching are finally all considered.

I then apply the necessary combinatorics of determining the different numbers of total bases and assign probabilities based on who the two opposing batters are.

I must say that I have just started using this prediction method, so I have no results to speak of.

[gtrunner57]

Yesterday: -.375u

Today
Wright +1/2 over Bay at -165
Zimmerman +1/2 over Rollins at -150
C.Jones pk over Bonds at -120 (3)
Fielder +1/2 over Pujols at -140 (2)
Lee pk over Griffey at -125
Kent -1/2 over Berkman at +130
Guererro -1/2 over Wells at +120
Konerko +1/2 over Swisher at -150

[TomG]

Are you surprised/concerned that you found 8 bets against 5Dimes 30 cent lines? How much of an edge do you expect for your single unit bets?

[Thremp]

Correct me if I'm wrong. But this only applies to hits correct?

Like a BB counts for 0?

[brendanb438]

Thremp ya that is correct.

[brendanb438]

AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS GIDP AVG OBP SLG OPS

Chipper Jones 24 7 0 0 0 3 4 4 2 0 0 .292 .379 .292 .671

Barry Bonds 23 10 1 0 4 6 6 1 0 0 2 .435 .533 1.000 1.533


Bonds has had some solid numbers against Hudson. I think I like Bonds over Jones after looking at the numbers.

Jones #s are against Ortiz.

[Thremp]

[ QUOTE ]
AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS GIDP AVG OBP SLG OPS

Chipper Jones 24 7 0 0 0 3 4 4 2 0 0 .292 .379 .292 .671

Barry Bonds 23 10 1 0 4 6 6 1 0 0 2 .435 .533 1.000 1.533


Bonds has had some solid numbers against Hudson. I think I like Bonds over Jones after looking at the numbers.

Jones #s are against Ortiz.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the worst way to analyze this bet.

[brendanb438]

I know this isn't the best way, but how well a batter has hit off a certain pitcher doesn't mean anything Thremp?

I am not playing these silly bets so I don't care to look further into it.

[gtrunner57]

I have not taken into account individual pitcher vs batter matchups. I suppose there is definitely an argument for doing so, but in my opinion this data would have to be heavily regressed towards the mean due to a very small sample size. Combine this with the possibility of some of the individual matchups occurring like 10 years ago for anywhere you have a decent sample size, and the fact that some % of the at-bats will be against relievers and it just seems almost unnecessary, in my opinion.

TomG, to be honest, I'm neither concerned or surprised for two reasons. First, I think I would be correct in saying that in a fashion similar to how a skilled handicapper would be more likely find good bets in Arena Football or WNBA as compared to NFL lines, the Total Bases prop bets are more likely to be soft as compared to the Moneyline or Total Runs bets.

In addition to this, I think that public opinion is generally pretty poor at correctly evaluating some specific baseball players. For instance, I think Russ Ortiz is an absolutely horrible pitcher for MLB standards, and when put through my projection method, could be attributed more as the reason why I have Jones such a favorite over Bonds rather than any difference in opinion about the skill set of Jones vs the skill set of Bonds.

The reason I'm not concerned is that I have a lot of confidence in my method, and maybe more significantly, since I have no results to speak of, I'm only using a fraction of my bankroll for these props.