KK on paired flop vs 3ppl. my move?

[Anycall]

i have no reads on the villain. fwiw he played about 40/15 over 10hands. his raise of my cbet with 2opp behind him shows he is strong. he could certainly have an 8, nfd, and overpairs worse than mine. looking at the numbers, i am well ahead of that range. however, since his raise was vs 3opp, should we give more weight to him having trips as opposed to other hands?

what is my action on flop? push or fold? it seems that if we call flop, we can't fold a blank turn.

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.10/$0.25 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $24.00
BB: $31.60
UTG: $16.25
MP: $21.85
Hero (CO): $25.00
BTN: $21.00

Preflop: Hero is dealt K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6 Players)
2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $1.00</font>, BTN calls $1.00, SB calls $0.90, BB calls $0.75

Flop: ($4) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 Players)
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $3.00</font>, <font color="red">BTN raises to $7.00</font>, 2 folds, Hero

[thac]

Well, lets break it down.

(his numbers don't matter, it's 10 hands)

Preflop he just called, he's played 4 out of his 10 hands so that could be anything.. we'll say any pair under TT, a bunch of suited connectors and suited aces.

Flop (you should bet 4 here), he minraises + 1 with two people left to act. You're showing sick strength by betting into 3 people and he makes this almost a minraise. This is never a draw I don't think. As soon as he does this his hand range weights more to the 98, 87, 44 part of his range and less on like Ax[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

You can't really call here because there aren't many turn cards you like and raising here is pretty bad too because most times you're crushed. With no reads I think you can fold this.


Btw, what did button buy in with? Has he won pots, or is he steaming? This could lean more towards a call if he bought in with full buyin and kept losing, but I don't think I call here very often because every time I do I see 87s.

[Maulik]

thac,

Your reasoning is sound but I do think you can include PP &gt;= 99 as part of a villains' min-raising range.

[thac]

I think it depends on villain's aggression factor, I assumed from his VP/PFR numbers that he was pretty passive. Don't you think they just call 3 streets with a pocket pair?

[JackAll]

thac, you made some good arguments.

I still think there is a huge range of hands that we beat. I think a flush draw is definitely likely, as is a lower overpair.

Lets say his range is:

overpairs: (24 hands we destroy)
99-QQ

Standard draws: (11 hands we win 2/3 times against)
35s/79s/9Js/TQs/JKs
34s/45s/9Ts/TJs/JQs/QKs

Big draws: (14 hands we are 50/50 with)
A2s-AQs/ 56s/67s/57s

Hands with an 8 in there: (28 hands)
86/87/89/8T (I think offsuit is half as likely on average, so will say 20 hands out of possible 32 hands here on average)
A8 (8 hands)


That's a lot of hands we beat.
I would say $4 is not much to play to stay in, and be cautious on the turn.

[thac]

But isn't this a pretty standard reverse implied odds hand? If villain has like 66, he might stack off. If he has some kind of diamond draw, he might stack off.

What do we do on the turn? We're in a difficult spot if we just call the flop minraise+1. I think if we're gonna play here we need to raise just because we're OOP and half the deck kills our action on the turn.

Since I'm really uncomfortable 3-betting this flop I think it's a safe fold.

[Anycall]

i am with thac in that i am uncomfortable 3betting this flop. when villain makes that smallish raise, like i mentioned in op, he could have trips, fd, overpairs lower than mine, boat. but if i 3bet flop, he will only come along with trips, boat, and maybe nfd. vs that range, our KK fares pretty bad.

as for calling flop, there are only 2cards that can improve us if he has us beat already. so calling for sake of improving is basically out the window. but if we call flop here, we pretty much have to stack off on non diamond, non ace turn right? if we don't why did we call the raise in the first place?

i am honestly not sure what the best play is here. guess it really depends on the read and table dynamics.

[Maulik]

This is microstakes and people are more likely to misplay their hand than worry about mucking KK on a paired board.