25NL - flopped set faces aggression on turn

[skoal2k4]

villian is 27/13 with agg. factors of 1.3/0.5/0.5 after 50 hands. My image is somewhat aggressive PF running 31/24 with agg. factor around 2 postflop

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.10/$0.25 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $16.50
BB: $44.50
UTG: $26.50
skoal2k4 (MP): $37.50
CO: $3.80
BTN: $28.00

Preflop: skoal2k4 is dealt 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 Players)
UTG folds, <font color="red">skoal2k4 raises to $0.85</font>, CO calls $0.85, BTN folds, SB calls $0.75, BB calls $0.60

Flop: ($3.40) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 Players)
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="red">skoal2k4 bets $3.40</font>, 2 folds, BB calls $3.40

Turn: ($10.20) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets $10.20</font>, skoal2k4 ??

he pretty much insta-bet pot on the turn. Given his low agg. numbers postflop (I know that the sample size is small), what do you make of villians action and how do I proceed?

[techrush]

i think you have to fold here. what hands in his range are you beating ? QJ i think reraises on the flop here more often than not. AA nd KK would likely 3 bet preflop.

It could be a donk overplaying TPTK but going by your stats on villain here his and range of hands i think you must fold this.

[JROK777]

Well you ahve 12 outs or about 24% chance of making a FH or quads. You are going to lose 3 out of 4 times if villian has a flush. You need to be able to win 10.20X3=$30.60 w/o including any more of your $ that you put in from here. The pot is 20.40, so you need to get another 10.20 out of villian to break even. After you call the turn, you'll have 23.00 left in your stack to bet/shove if you make your hand. On the river villian will call with a flush(if that's what he has) when you make a boat. Villian could also have 88,JJ,QQ,QJs and played poorly preflop/on flop. If that's the case and you lose to a bigger boat, it's just a cooler. This is one way to play.

[JROK777]

Oops, youi have 10 outs, not 12. You will lose 4 out of 5 times if villian has a flush. You need to get the pot to 40.80 to break even. You will only profit 3$ over 5 tries if you make a boat and villian calls a shove. This is tight. You have to make a read on villian here. His low AGR factor scares the hell out of me. Villian's PSB is strong in this spot. Will villian slow play AA,KK or QJ like this? If he will, shoving the turn is best. I'm not sure what the best line in this spot is. This hand is tougher than 15 mother-in-laws.

[Amerzel]

Couldn't the villain have AQ, KQ, or AJ with a big heart?

[homeslice]

with how the action has gone, I don't see him making this play w/o the flush, I'd fold.