|
|
#11
08-14-2007, 03:38 PM
|
|||
|
|||
Re: 50NL; KhQh on 8hJhAs board gets raised
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Villain did a good job of protecting his hand. I fold the KhQh here. [/ QUOTE ] Huh? You fold to his flop raise? [/ QUOTE ] I am not sure that we can push this. If we were open ended than definitely. That makes it a call or fold. I am not sure we can fold it so I call. (weak huh!) +EV [/ QUOTE ] Actually this was pretty close to my analysis at the table. I didn't think I had the fold equity to make pushing good and I couldn't fold so I called. 
|
|
#12
08-14-2007, 03:39 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: 50NL; KhQh on 8hJhAs board gets raised
I was thinking 25% equity if we call with one card to come and we are currently behind we have ~12 outs or 25% (12*2) on the next card.
Yes I realize now that if we look at two cards to come we have much more. Also I put him on top pair, two pair, sets trying to protect his hand against the FD. +EV
|
|
#13
08-14-2007, 03:40 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: 50NL; KhQh on 8hJhAs board gets raised
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Villain did a good job of protecting his hand. I fold the KhQh here. [/ QUOTE ] Huh? You fold to his flop raise? [/ QUOTE ] I am not sure that we can push this. If we were open ended than definitely. That makes it a call or fold. I am not sure we can fold it so I call. (weak huh!) +EV [/ QUOTE ] Actually this was pretty close to my analysis at the table. I didn't think I had the fold equity to make pushing good and I couldn't fold so I called. [/ QUOTE ] Yeah but even with 40% equity and the dead money in the pot I am not sure we need FE to make it a good push. Villain does not pay us off on our hearts draws unless we push and when we do we get to see two cards not one. +EV
|
|
#14
08-14-2007, 03:41 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: 50NL; KhQh on 8hJhAs board gets raised
Yea...I need to do some math about exactly how oftne he needs to fold to make pushing prfitable. Just intuitively though I don't think he folds enough. Can't do it now....gotta go but I'll try later.
|
|
#15
08-14-2007, 03:41 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: 50NL; KhQh on 8hJhAs board gets raised
In the very worst case, you still have 35 %, and that is if villain never has another draw, or AK.
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt 7,920 games 0.005 secs 1,584,000 games/sec Board: As Jh 8h Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 34.596% 34.60% 00.00% 2740 0.00 { KhQh } Hand 1: 65.404% 65.40% 00.00% 5180 0.00 { JJ, 88, AJs } ---
|
|
#17
08-14-2007, 03:44 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: 50NL; KhQh on 8hJhAs board gets raised
Hero pushes. With 12 outs he is about 48% to hit his straight or flush, and even if Villain doesn't fold the money already in the pot makes getting it all in here profitable. Sometimes villain might have A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]X[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and hit a higher flush, sometimes he might boat up, but this doesn't happen often enough for a shove here to be unprofitable.
Correction after PokerStoving: Hero is putting in about 46% of the money in the pot with an equity of about 39%. If Villain calls every time, this would be -EV. But I'm pretty sure that even with his slightly weaksauce aggression factor villain will fold at least the 15% of the time we need to squeak out a little profit here.
|
|
#18
08-14-2007, 03:50 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: 50NL; KhQh on 8hJhAs board gets raised
I don't think you should bet this flop unless you are betting it so that you can b3bai in this scenario. Otherwise, just check flop because a 4-way CB on an A-hi flop is pretty murky. Maybe c/r ai in certain scenarios.
if hero's gonna bet/call, he might as well just c/c.
|
|
#19
08-14-2007, 03:54 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: 50NL; KhQh on 8hJhAs board gets raised
[ QUOTE ]
Yea...I need to do some math about exactly how oftne he needs to fold to make pushing prfitable. Just intuitively though I don't think he folds enough. Can't do it now....gotta go but I'll try later. [/ QUOTE ] OK assuming no fold equity and 40% pot equity this is really tight. on the flop the pot is $8 and effective stacks are $45. We bet 5 and are raised 18. We have effectively 40 behind and villain will not fold so assuming that we push villain calls 100% . We are risking $40 for a final pot of $100. That is exactly the pot equity we said we have. So depending on our stove numbers and our villains range this is either +EV or -EV depending. I think it could still be marginally +EV because I am not sure that I accept villain has no Fold Equity. I might fold top pair if I were villain and I was pushed into after reraising like this to protect against the FD. +EV
|
|
#20
08-14-2007, 03:57 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: 50NL; KhQh on 8hJhAs board gets raised
[ QUOTE ]
I don't think you should bet this flop unless you are betting it so that you can b3bai in this scenario. Otherwise, just check flop because a 4-way CB on an A-hi flop is pretty murky. Maybe c/r ai in certain scenarios. if hero's gonna bet/call, he might as well just c/c. [/ QUOTE ] That's a good point. What do you think would be the best play here: Bet/3bet or check raise.....or maybe even check call? Do you really think I have like any fold equity here on bet/3bet....or even check raise?
|
 |
|
|
Linear Mode
