Live 200 NL. Overpair in bloated pot vs morons; bad turn card

[CLB]

I'd shove the flop.

You're stack is 1.8x the pot at this point, and I don't think you can make an appropriate flop bet that doesn't pot commit you. In this sort of game (lots of bad calling stations) and with this super drawy board I think you've got to pot the flop. However, if you do and you get a caller (or callers) then you've got $80 behind and the pot will be $300+.

To play the hand correctly (protecting yourself from all of the possible draws) you're going to have to pot commit yourself, so just shove and let them make as big of a mistake as possible.

[Black Aces 518]

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I might actually get away from this on the turn, J-10 looks like AA to some of these guys. But the flop bet looks goot for a live table. Those people don't realize how bet sizing works, so just make a good sized monetary bet.

Why $18 pf? Why not smaller or larger?

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I made it 18 because there is a certain barrier at 20 from my experience, so I wanted to make it as much as I thought people would call.

It looks like a lot of people just shove the flop. I just feel like if everyone folds, I lost a lot of value on the hand, b/c they want to call. I've since thought about it, and given that the girl to my left loved to bet flops, maybe even a flop check, hoping she bets, the donks call and are trapped when I then shove. Of course, the flop checking through is a horror show too. Stupid out of position.

I did go ahead and shove the turn. All three opponents called LOL. And no one had JT.

[Shaffer]

I probably bet a bit more on the flop, but I don't like the idea of a flop shove here either. That still gets us action from the flush draws and straight draws, but even morons will fold to a shove here with weak, random, 2nd pair holdings.

I think max value here is to bet around $80-$100. Yes, it commits you even if a nightmare card comes on the turn, but in my opinion our primary concern here should be extracting max value from the A8, J9, 78 style hands that are calling a pot but often not a shove.

Betting 65 on the flop gives too many draws the correct odds to call, particularly after that first caller enters in.

As played, the cringing turn shove is inevitable, I fear.