10NL: Thin river call

members_only · #1 08-13-2007, 11:04 PM

Villain is 57/7/2.3 over 88 hands

No particular reads

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

SB ($9.80)
BB ($5.90)
Hero ($10.50)
MP ($7)
CO ($15.50)
Button ($6.30)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
Hero raises to $0.4, 2 folds, Button calls $0.40, SB calls $0.35, 1 fold.

Flop: ($1.30) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1, Button calls $1, SB folds.

Turn: ($3.30) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $1, Hero calls $1.

River: ($5.30) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $2.6, Hero ?

winnnar · #2 08-13-2007, 11:25 PM

the turn bet and river value bet suggests he is milking top pair here. very unlikely that he is bluffing a missed draw. folding here would not be a bad decision at all.

apunisher · #3 08-13-2007, 11:27 PM

he could be vbetting worse, your getting a great price
i call

Student Caine · #4 08-13-2007, 11:48 PM

Grunch:

PREFLOP: Against this many big stacks UTG I fold preflop with AJo - is this weak-tight?

FLOP: I hate to not cbet whenever I show the strength pre-flop, but against two opponents, with an overcard to my pair and a flush draw I have a hard time betting here. I may do it sometimes depending on my reads - but unless out 57/7/2.3 really likes to fold postflop I probably check and release.

TURN - The turn is a blank, if we want to bet the flop why do we check the turn? Pot control? (honest question, not a criticism). I don't like the check with a flush draw and possible straight draw.

RIVER - That card is the proverbial "Ick". Are we folding to a busted draw or are we calling a paired K or a complete tool who actually held a 3 this long? We need to be good a tad better than 1 in 3 here....I think I make a crying call based upon the fact that we could be looking at a busted draw, but man this is close...

members_only · #5 08-14-2007, 12:02 AM

[ QUOTE ]

TURN - The turn is a blank, if we want to bet the flop why do we check the turn? Pot control? (honest question, not a criticism). I don't like the check with a flush draw and possible straight draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah villain had about $5-ish behind on the turn so betting would have committed me to paying off any better hand. I was planning to c/f to any reasonable bet but he priced me in.

The difference between the flop and the turn is that on the turn we have more information, in the form of his flop call.

bozzer · #6 08-14-2007, 07:04 AM

agree it seems close at first look. you must have some better reads after 88 hands?

basically, if I suspect he can bluff a busted draw i'll call, if not fold.

bozzer · #7 08-14-2007, 07:05 AM

agree with caine that cbet is marginal. i think it depends a lot on flow tho.

munkey · #8 08-14-2007, 07:30 AM

As played I think if you check/call the turn you should call the river - and see either Jx or a busted fdraw unless your being probe bet by Kx weak on the turn that thinks its good and vbets the river, or a slowplay.

But given his stats I call and expect to see Jx/king rag and a busted fdraw or a weird 2 pair but enough that we beat to make it a call.

Edit: I just noticed the 3 lower card -> trips. Hmm I may fold this know -esp if you know he calls with any part of the board -likely given his stats and turn bet and if you doubt he'll bet a busted fdraw then I fold 2nd pair.

Note to self: Learn to read teh [censored] board better [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]