Oop semibluff late in NL $109

[HelixTrix]

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I don't hate the play. You hope for check/check and a chance to see a free turn, and you have plenty of outs if he hit the flop, but I think his stack is too small for this to be optimal. Some percentage of the time he took a stab with air, in which case he'll fold to the CRAI. I think he's more likely to jam with a straight of flush draw, so his flop bet is most likely to indicate a pair.

In any case, he'll call the all-in with a pair or draw, and I think you would be behind his betting range. To me the best play given the stack sizes is to jam the flop, or make the "scarier" committing bet, e.g. 10K., where he knows he has zero fold equity on a shove.

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The problem I have with betting out is that I have to fold to a lot of semibluff raises, for the same reason I gave above that the villain 'should' fold with his AQ/AJ, because the A is dirty, so I often get pushed off when I actually had equity to call. Also, if I'm right in thinking that the villain can hold 99/88, it is not true that he will call with 'any' pair.