Oop semibluff late in NL $109
 

Sorry, but I can't get the hand history converter to work today so I'll try to make it as neat as I can. I think I'm happy with this play but I have a feeling it will look donkish to a lot of people so I'm interested to hear opinions. I'll save talking about ranges and things until after some responses.

Blinds 600/1200 Antes 125 (Pot 2800 - 8-handed)

Hero (36802 in chips) is utg
Villain (18952 in chips) is next to act

Hero is dealt [Jc Ah]
Hero raises to 3000
Villain calls
All else fold

*** FLOP *** [Kh Tc 6h] (Pot 8800)

Hero checks
Villain bets 6000
Hero raises to 16000

Re: Oop semibluff late in NL $109
 

his stack is too small to get him off it. hes only got ~10k left and you're offering him 3-1, i doubt he folds anything here.

Re: Oop semibluff late in NL $109
 

If he bets his whole preflop range (as I see it), the majority of it actually can't call getting 3 to 1. The question is, how much does his range get narrowed by the fact that he bets?

Re: Oop semibluff late in NL $109
 

I should add that I had nothing much to go on since joining this table so I'm trying to look at this in an 'optimal' sense, part of which definitely includes the fact that the payoffs at this point were a couple of hundred bucks, while first prize was 10k.

Re: Oop semibluff late in NL $109
 

w/o much of a read this can't be good, since you don't know that he will bet his whole preflop range or even what his range is. i honestly cant find much that would fold here

Re: Oop semibluff late in NL $109
 

Maybe I'm too nitty, but if I'm villan, why did he just call instead of jamming? That leads me to believe something strong here. What folds to a check raise?

Re: Oop semibluff late in NL $109
 

I don't hate the play. You hope for check/check and a chance to see a free turn, and you have plenty of outs if he hit the flop, but I think his stack is too small for this to be optimal. Some percentage of the time he took a stab with air, in which case he'll fold to the CRAI. I think he's more likely to jam with a straight of flush draw, so his flop bet is most likely to indicate a pair.

In any case, he'll call the all-in with a pair or draw, and I think you would be behind his betting range. To me the best play given the stack sizes is to jam the flop, or make the "scarier" committing bet, e.g. 10K., where he knows he has zero fold equity on a shove.

Re: Oop semibluff late in NL $109
 

Well I was going to leave it but as I'm not going to be up for much longer tonight I'll go ahead and give you the range I put him on because it does change things. To call but not reraise in EP I put him on:

AQ, AJs, KQs, JJ-88

Now out of that range the hands that always call are KQs, JJ and TT (9/35), against which my equity is 25%, meaning I lose 6000. When he folds I win 14800. Personally I would fold AQ and AJs most of the time because the A would be a dirty out. 99 and 88 I think pretty much always fold. The analysis is complicated because it's hard to know how many hands he bets and how many of the weaker hands he calls with, but given I have decent equity against the weaker hands when he does call with them, it's hard to believe I don't make back more than 6k equity.

Re: Oop semibluff late in NL $109
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't hate the play. You hope for check/check and a chance to see a free turn, and you have plenty of outs if he hit the flop, but I think his stack is too small for this to be optimal. Some percentage of the time he took a stab with air, in which case he'll fold to the CRAI. I think he's more likely to jam with a straight of flush draw, so his flop bet is most likely to indicate a pair.

In any case, he'll call the all-in with a pair or draw, and I think you would be behind his betting range. To me the best play given the stack sizes is to jam the flop, or make the "scarier" committing bet, e.g. 10K., where he knows he has zero fold equity on a shove.

[/ QUOTE ]

The problem I have with betting out is that I have to fold to a lot of semibluff raises, for the same reason I gave above that the villain 'should' fold with his AQ/AJ, because the A is dirty, so I often get pushed off when I actually had equity to call. Also, if I'm right in thinking that the villain can hold 99/88, it is not true that he will call with 'any' pair.

Re: Oop semibluff late in NL $109
 

I see the thought process and can agree but isn't his stack size a little thin to pull it off?