50NL- QQ 3bet with interesting flop

[thac]

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You cannot call for set value.

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So villan calls a bet from hero with AA/KK on a Q-high flop, then folds to hero's turn bet?

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Uh.. no. You're not gonna flop a set enough times for this to be profitable, it's a simple math equation.

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You're calling 6 to win 62 + 2 = 64, that's 10.67:1 odds.

If you know villan has AA/KK, you're 8:1 to outflop him (odds of making a set are a little better than the usual 7.5:1, but are defrayed somewhat by set over set)

So if you know villan's going to felt, you have the odds to call.

If you don't know villan's going to felt, he's either super weak-tight with AA/KK or your original read of AA/KK is incorrect, and is actually larger.

Generally, I think you're right that the 5/10 rule doesn't apply as much OOP (BTW, wasn't "5" for SC, and "10" for PP?), unless villan has an extremely narrow range and won't let go (and if villan has an extremely narrow range and will let go, he's very exploitable). It's just that when you say villan definitely has AA/KK but won't pay off, that doesn't make any sense.

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So you'd call a 3-bet with 22 here?

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If I knew villan always had AA/KK and could never release, why not?

You're the one who put him on exactly AA/KK. If you think he'll release on a Q-high board to a double-barreled bet (pot flop, pot turn), then his range is probably larger than that, but if it really is only AA/KK then you can't say both that villan won't pay off a set and villan can't be bet off the hand.

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I'm just saying.. doesn't he bump to 10 with AK? I mean, it just seems like it's out of the ordinary for someone to make a raise like that with a hand like AK.

Like, his range COULD be wider, but do 17/12s 3-bet a guy that raised UTG+1 a lot lighter now? They didn't when I played 50nl. A 3-bet was like QQ+ when I was at these games (only like 4 months ago), and seeing as how we have QQ, it's really rare that he has the others.

Also - your plan on KQ3, or AQ2 flops? There are some flops where villain won't stack off I think. I wouldn't say that villain stacks off every time, that's way too optimistic.

[floppy]

At this point, it's pretty much a theoretical question I'm asking, since I'd have to know villain is definitely the kind of player to felt with AA/KK overpair, or fold an AA/KK overpair to pressure, and I have nowhere near the experience to know that for sure with anyone I play with. I think in this case I'd assume that they'd felt, but I know I've been painfully wrong about that before (flopped set and bet out, only to see villain fold).

Thanks for the discussion, thac. I really appreciate it.

[thac]

I'll leave this thread with one thing that I've realized after many hands: There are many more ways to beat a nit than by calling and hoping to out-flop.

I'll let you guys discuss.

[JackAll]

Pf is good.


For flop:

Look at a 12% pfr'ers 3-betting range: JJ+/AK

Against JJ we are about 1/4 to win
Against KK we are about 1/4 to win
Against AA we have less outs for str8 and are a dog and have little FE
Against AK we are similar to AA

If we add AQ to his range, its far worse lol.
IF we add TT to his range, it worse again.


Overall, flop is c/f.

[Dan Bitel]

thac, please don't leave the thread yet, because in my opinion, you've given some porr advice.

You sure can't call pre set odds preflop, but that doesn't make the call bad. What I don't agree with is this:

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Well, do you think he has KK or AA only? If so, throw it away.

If you don't think he has KK or AA, 4-bet.

Calling a 3-bet OOP like this is gonna make [censored] really tough (as we can see why in this hand)


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Calling preflop is fine. Just because his range is wider than AA/KK, why does that mean 4betting is best?

[Dan Bitel]

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You cannot call for set value.

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So villan calls a bet from hero with AA/KK on a Q-high flop, then folds to hero's turn bet?

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Uh.. no. You're not gonna flop a set enough times for this to be profitable, it's a simple math equation.

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You're calling 6 to win 62 + 2 = 64, that's 10.67:1 odds.

If you know villan has AA/KK, you're 8:1 to outflop him (odds of making a set are a little better than the usual 7.5:1, but are defrayed somewhat by set over set)

So if you know villan's going to felt, you have the odds to call.

If you don't know villan's going to felt, he's either super weak-tight with AA/KK or your original read of AA/KK is incorrect, and is actually larger.

Generally, I think you're right that the 5/10 rule doesn't apply as much OOP (BTW, wasn't "5" for SC, and "10" for PP?), unless villan has an extremely narrow range and won't let go (and if villan has an extremely narrow range and will let go, he's very exploitable). It's just that when you say villan definitely has AA/KK but won't pay off, that doesn't make any sense.

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So you'd call a 3-bet with 22 here?

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If I knew villan always had AA/KK and could never release, why not?

You're the one who put him on exactly AA/KK. If you think he'll release on a Q-high board to a double-barreled bet (pot flop, pot turn), then his range is probably larger than that, but if it really is only AA/KK then you can't say both that villan won't pay off a set and villan can't be bet off the hand.

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dude, even if you get all in every time you flop a set, its still a -EV call with 22 here

[bozzer]

preflop call seemed fine to me. find a flop with out an A or K on and profit.

I thought flop was a fold because of our lack of outs when called, but you might have enough FE to get it in. it's a fairly simple calculation along the lines of what EMc said.

i'll be interested to see an EV caluclation for this. much more interested than reading more posts about calling for set zzzzzzvalue.

[ontiltsoon]

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You cannot call for set value.

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So villan calls a bet from hero with AA/KK on a Q-high flop, then folds to hero's turn bet?


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You are calling for 10% of your stack plus little dead money. You have to be very sure you will stack him, and if he has KK and the flop is AQx you are probably not stacking him OOP.

Calling preflop is the worst option I think. Edit: If we are just calling for set value, that is.

[munkey]

Prelfop is standardish for villan he 3bet to 8 because ther's pfr +caller and denied enough PP/SC odds to hit.

I call preflop, only 4bet if some light action has been going on -and then I often call and c/r AI low rag flop.




I call this preflop not for set value that's nice but to get jiggy on some flops. As played vs villans likely range of

AQ+, TT that flop hit every hand in his range and only AA the least - I think ther'es little FE except may be vs AA and AK but even then I doubt very little. Also He 3bet Hero UTG [IDK about Hero's image] so his range is probably more JJ+,AK.

Flame me if you want I c/fold this flop because I don't know how to play it on this flop vs his range - I can't c/r AI because I think FE is low and with ~8 outs, queens give AA/AK a str8 but pone JJ/TT.

And I can't call and check turn IP cause I'm OOP so I take the c/f route. Hopefully others can enlighten me on the best line here.

[Chomp]

3 ranges, going from tightest to widest:

Board: Th Ks Jd
Hand 0: 24.478% { QdQs }
Hand 1: 75.522% { KK+ }

Board: Th Ks Jd
Hand 0: 28.392% { QdQs }
Hand 1: 71.608% { JJ+, AKs, AKo }

Board: Th Ks Jd
Hand 0: 39.400% { QdQs }
Hand 1: 60.600% { TT+, AJs+, AJo+ }

(There's virtually no difference between making the btm of the pp range TT or JJ. And adding AK to the first range also changes the numbers very little).

I think I rather gloomily throw this away post. 40% equity at very best with 8 outs at very best (a couple of those are probably gone) and little chance we are ahead now.

Meh, although I guess you could say that the dead money + he could have TT + be could fold AA (lol) + whatever = it is probably pretty close in EV terms.

I am really, really unsure about a pf 4b and would like to hear more debate.