King Yao-ing College Football Season Wins - Page 9

bevo_stevo · #81 08-13-2007, 07:07 PM

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I'm ROFLing at the notion that Michigan will only be 5' point favorites at Northwestern. It made me snort, too.

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Thats really the result of my ridiculous handicapping skills more than anything. Northwestern currently does not have any posted games (that I can find), and so I penciled in them in as 3.5 point favorites against Minnesota at home. The model ran with that number and as a result Northwestern ended up being much stronger than they should have been.

bevo_stevo · #82 08-13-2007, 07:27 PM

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Just want to add one thing and say that I think:

8-team playoff > 4-team playoff > current system > old bowl system > 16-team playoff.

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I think an 8-team system would work pretty well with the way the major conferences are set up. The first round would probably need to be a home game for the top seeds to mitigate the amount of travel for the teams. The primary problem with any playoff system is all the politics involved (remember how much belly-aching the Rose Bowl/Pac-10/Big-10 did when the original BCS was formed?).

The real culprit in all of this is that big colleges always have one or two weanies on their schedules. If you forced teams to play really difficult games for those one or two weeks, you would have a lot more clarity with regards to who should be in the major bowls.

pseudo t-bone · #83 08-13-2007, 07:56 PM

thank you for all the numbers, bevo stevo. would you mind running kansas state and south florida?

GoldenBears · #84 08-13-2007, 08:10 PM

How bout 16 team playoff?

Top 4 teams get a bye, which is a huge reward for finishing in the top 4 (not having to play an extra game against a 13-16 ranked team which are usually really good teams that got upset in a game). Under the current system, top 4 teams are the ones that have really earned it...

Teams 5-8 get to host a home game and make revenue... these are the teams that would've been in BCS games under the current system but have some deficiency: either they are a great team that didn't win their conference (LSU, Michigan last year) or they won their conference but aren't as good as some of the 2nd place teams (Wake Forest last year) or they are BCS buster type teams (Boise St, Utah etc.)

Teams 9-12 are teams that scheduled tough non conf games and lost but did well in conf, or got upset in conf but had marquee non conf wins... or very good teams that came on late and might be the best team in the country were it not for weeks 1 and 3 losses... or 11-1 non BCS teams with good wins over BCS rivals.

I think this would make 4 really compelling first round games, and 4 incredible second round storylines.

I agree that 16 is too many, but I think that 12 is a good medium and really rewards teams for finishing in the top 4.

As long as we're throwing out totally hypothetical situations, I also think there should be some control for teams not having to play teams from their own conf. in the first two rounds of the playoffs.

What if, instead of matching seeds lowest and highest, the lowest seed got to PICK who they wanted to play? That would be sick...

iggymcfly · #85 08-13-2007, 11:06 PM

Well, the 12-team playoff is somewhat reasonable from a competitive standpoint (adding Wake Forest, Notre Dame, Wisconsin, and Auburn wouldn't dilute things too much), but it still doesn't work very well from a logistics standpoint. Where do you fit all the games in? In order to run a I-A playoff with more than 8 teams, I think you need to do the following:
(1) have playoff games either during finals or have multiple games at neutral sites which the vast majority of students and fans wouldn't be able to travel to
(2) destroy the bowl system

When you get into three different rounds of playoffs, there will be games right in the middle of the lower bowls and those games will just lose all of their viability and appeal. At that point, you might as well just make a I-A.5 for all the teams from lower conferences since they'll have no reward when they have good season and the programs will just fall apart anyway.

Under my scenario, there's enough time after the quarterfinals, that the fans of the teams that lose in the 1st round will still travel for bowl games and the system can still continue uninterrupted.

Also, in my 8-team playoff, I'd only seed the top 4 conference winners and the rest of the teams would be setup as close to their ranking as possible without being on the same side of the bracket as another team from their conference. For example:

Oklahoma at (1)Ohio State
LSU at (4)Louisville
Boise State at (2)Florida
Michigan at (3)USC

Austiger · #86 08-14-2007, 12:29 AM

Is Auburn really going to be -2.5 vs. USF? How is that possible? Home game at night has to be worth a lot more than 2.5. You're saying USF is better?

GoldenBears · #87 08-14-2007, 01:51 AM

Well, yeah - Real playoffs kill the bowls completely... that's why they don't happen. I was assuming in 12 or 16 team playoffs, you do away with the other bowls completely.

USF is going to be pretty solid this year, and I am a Big East homer, but I would absolutely hammer Auburn -2.5 if that's the line. That said, I hope USF wins - that would be pretty big if a middle of the pack Big East team could beat a supposedly top SEC team on the road.

domer2 · #88 08-14-2007, 12:30 PM

I've been a proponent of a 6-team playoff, which is a hybrid of a 4 team (too few) and a 8 team (perhaps too many) that keeps the current bowls as is and rewards teams for the regular season (which is what CFB is all about).

1 and 2 get byes

3v6
4v5

There would be 5 total games which corresponds to the current BCS bowls (4 + a rotating NC game).

DannyOcean_ · #89 08-14-2007, 02:20 PM

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I've been a proponent of a 6-team playoff, which is a hybrid of a 4 team (too few) and a 8 team (perhaps too many) that keeps the current bowls as is and rewards teams for the regular season (which is what CFB is all about).

1 and 2 get byes

3v6
4v5

There would be 5 total games which corresponds to the current BCS bowls (4 + a rotating NC game).

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I like your idea, but i'd like to see at least 8 so good independents can get a shot. 6 teams would either leave out undefeated teams or leave out major conference champions. At least 8 teams means all 6 biggies and room for whatever other schools deserved it.

Thremp · #90 08-14-2007, 02:36 PM

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I've been a proponent of a 6-team playoff, which is a hybrid of a 4 team (too few) and a 8 team (perhaps too many) that keeps the current bowls as is and rewards teams for the regular season (which is what CFB is all about).

1 and 2 get byes

3v6
4v5

There would be 5 total games which corresponds to the current BCS bowls (4 + a rotating NC game).

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I like your idea, but i'd like to see at least 8 so good independents can get a shot. 6 teams would either leave out undefeated teams or leave out major conference champions. At least 8 teams means all 6 biggies and room for whatever other schools deserved it and ND since people want to make money.

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