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#11
08-10-2007, 05:35 PM
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Re: NLCASH $200, semi deep with combo draw
[ QUOTE ]
I'm leaning towards just betting out for like 35 here. I don't really like c/c, and I think stack sizes are awkward for doing a c/r; you're too deep to crai and too shallow to do anything but shove the turn if he calls. So I'd just lead. If he raises, you shove. The biggest thing I'd want him to dump if we shove is the NFD; you're worse off against AdKd and Ad9D than you are against QQQ. I think he folds that draw sometimes, and I think he folds pretty much all other hands except for sets and maybe AdAx. That seem reasonable? If he calls the flop bet, I think the turn would be a pretty good spot for a CRAI. [/ QUOTE ] My equity vs AdXd is 30-35%. 
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#13
08-11-2007, 02:21 AM
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Re: NLCASH $200, semi deep with combo draw
I like b/3b ai. you are ahead of 1 pair, would he be willing to get it in with KQ/AQ type hands? You are also ahead of AA/KK if he plays them that way, but since you said he is 2p2 I'd think he is more likely to 4bet that pf this deep.
If he is generally eager to get allin you are in good shape getting allin on the flop. but if he just calls your flop bet the turn might be tough. Good hand to post, I hope you post the turn soon if you didnt get it ai on the flop.
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#16
08-13-2007, 09:53 PM
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Re: NLCASH $200, semi deep with combo draw
[ QUOTE ]
Tough hand. I like the idea of a big check-raise, but I'm not sure why... [/ QUOTE ] It's probably because it has a decent chance of folding a bigger draw and easily folds AQ... maybe even up to AA. Results: <font color="white"> I lead for $32, he makes it $100 as I wanted/expected, I shove, he calls with AdTd, turn blanks, I hit a 7 on the river FTW </font>
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#17
08-13-2007, 10:22 PM
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Re: NLCASH $200, semi deep with combo draw
okay maybe i'm just making things up cuz i've got a nasty headache and can't think but ai on the flop shouldn't OP be ahead of a set b/c with two cards to come and the str8 or flush wins for him he'd be like a 2-1 fav if i'm not hallucinating at this point. so shouldn't the b/3bai or c/rai on the flop be a better time than on the turn b/c of equity?
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#19
08-14-2007, 12:17 AM
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Re: NLCASH $200, semi deep with combo draw
[ QUOTE ]
okay maybe i'm just making things up cuz i've got a nasty headache and can't think but ai on the flop shouldn't OP be ahead of a set b/c with two cards to come and the str8 or flush wins for him he'd be like a 2-1 fav if i'm not hallucinating at this point. so shouldn't the b/3bai or c/rai on the flop be a better time than on the turn b/c of equity? [/ QUOTE ] We have right around 40% equity against each of the 3 sets. EDIT: we're not ahead because you have to account for the times that you hit a flush/straight and he boats/quads up to beat you.
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#20
08-14-2007, 12:29 PM
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Re: NLCASH $200, semi deep with combo draw
[ QUOTE ]
This isn't omaha, draws aren't favored over sets on the flop (if there is an instance I can't think of it). But we do have very good equity vs most normal ranges on the flop. [/ QUOTE ] If I recall correctly, you have to have 21 outs or more to be favored over a set. So only the absolute biggest draws are favored over a set, even in omaha. (you pretty much have to have a big wrap and a flush draw, or two flush draws and a couple other ways to win) And there's no way to have 21 outs on a set in holdem. But like jake said, you're not ahead of a set, because out of the 51% of the time you hit your draw (with 14 good outs), he'll make a full or quads somewhere around 21% of the time. Similarly, you're behind any 2 pair that includes the 9 of diamonds (54/45) due to a better flush redraw in addition to the 4 full outs, slightly behind (52/48) any 2 pair including any other 9 (because the 9 of diamonds is no longer an out for you), and a coinflip (50.5/49.5) with any other 2 pair.
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