#1
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Calling the flop with backdoor straight and flush draws
I was wondering if it would be +EV to call a pot sized bet on the flop with nothing but backdoor straight and flush draws to see if one improves on the turn. 2 backdoor draws = ~ 2 outs? Can I make this call based on implied odds vs. just one or two opponents? My question also assumes that I am not advanced enough to 'float' the turn if I am unimproved and hope to steal. So purely from an odds perspective of making either a flush or a straight do I have the odds (implied or otherwise) to call a bet on the flop?
Here is an example: No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 9 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter) SB: $15.65 BB: $31.55 UTG: $44.90 UTG+1: $25.95 MP1: $23.00 Hero (MP2): $143.00 MP3: $47.00 CO: $69.95 BTN: $19.25 Preflop: Hero is dealt Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (9 Players) UTG folds, UTG+1 calls $0.50, MP1 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $1.50</font>, 3 folds, SB calls $1.25, BB folds, UTG+1 calls $1.00 Flop: ($5) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 Players) SB checks, <font color="red">UTG+1 bets $3.00</font>, 2 folds Uncalled bet of $3.00 returned to UTG+1 Pot Size: $5.00 ($0.25 Rake) |
#2
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Re: Calling the flop with backdoor straight and flush draws
If you do decide to call it would be classified as a bluff call . You have nothing at all and most certainly you're trailing at the moment . At best you have about 6 outs and you're getting 8:3 pot odds but your odds of hitting your overcards on the turn is 41:6 . Even if you do hit your overcards , there is no certainty that you will win with it .Two backdoors is not enough to change the decision the other way .
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#3
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Re: Calling the flop with backdoor straight and flush draws
Backdoor flush draw is 3.3% to hit and backdoor straight draw is 2.6% to hit.
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#4
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Re: Calling the flop with backdoor straight and flush draws
in a limit game you might peel with just running draws, in the same spot where you'd peel with an underpair to try to spike trips. (huge pot, 1 bet to call).
but calling a pot-sized bet in NL without thinking about bluffing, just on the strength of two running draws? ludicrous. |
#5
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Re: Calling the flop with backdoor straight and flush draws
[ QUOTE ]
Backdoor flush draw is 3.3% to hit and backdoor straight draw is 2.6% to hit. [/ QUOTE ] ahem BD-FD is (10/47)*(9/46) which is 4.16% 1 BD-SD combo is (8/47)*(4/46) which is 1.48% often you can make more than 1 BD-SD which than makes it like (12/47)*((1/3)(8/46)+(2/3)(4/46))= 7.27% SO if you have a BDFD+BDSD it is like a 2 outer. plays very differently though. |
#6
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Re: Calling the flop with backdoor straight and flush draws
[ QUOTE ]
Backdoor flush draw is 3.3% to hit and backdoor straight draw is 2.6% to hit. [/ QUOTE ] Backdoor flush draw is ~4%, and backdoor straight draw depends on the quality of the draw. Equivalent of a 1 outer. "Open ended" (3 in a row) is also ~4%. Same 1 outer. Because backdoor draws often get paid off, many prefer to think of them as 1.5 outs on the flop. |
#7
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Re: Calling the flop with backdoor straight and flush draws
I'm looking at this chart for my info. A flush is 9 outs, and the percentages of hitting a runner/runner with 9 outs, according to my chart, is 3.3%. And an OESD is 8 outs, and my chart tells me it is 2.6% to hit a runner/runner OESD.
I don't know what the numbers are for hit a combo draw. If this chart is wrong, or I'm interpreting it worng, I'd like to know. |
#8
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Re: Calling the flop with backdoor straight and flush draws
[ QUOTE ]
ahem BD-FD is (10/47)*(9/46) which is 4.16% [/ QUOTE ] Shouldn't that be (9/47) * (8/46)? Flush draw is 9 outs, not 10. (9/47) * (8/46) = 3.3%. |
#9
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Re: Calling the flop with backdoor straight and flush draws
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] ahem BD-FD is (10/47)*(9/46) which is 4.16% [/ QUOTE ] Shouldn't that be (9/47) * (8/46)? Flush draw is 9 outs, not 10. (9/47) * (8/46) = 3.3%. [/ QUOTE ] It's a back door draw, so only 3 are accounted for. That leaves 10 left for the turn and then 9 for the river. |
#10
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Re: Calling the flop with backdoor straight and flush draws
OK. I got it. I misunderstood the number of outs, which meant that I read the chart wrong. I'm such a dope.
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