PS .25/.50 BB

[Xhad]

[ QUOTE ]
You need to be careful limiting ranges on guys at the micros. I had a guy beat me with K8o this weekend. K8o is one of those hands I would never put anyone on in a bajillion years.

[/ QUOTE ]

I swear like half the micros needs to learn that there are extremes between "you know exactly how your opponents play" and "all your opponents have any 2 cards with equal probability"

[OrigamiSensei]

So, I did a little more thinking and analysis on the probability of the flush draw. Xhad, you're right about the probability changing based on behavior but trying to do the mathematical analysis of that could get interesting.

I went into PokerStove and looked at starting hands. What came out of that was that roughly a third or a little more of likely starting hands are suited, which is obviously more than one would expect from ordinary suited vs unsuited statistical distributions. In other words, it reflects the selection bias for starting hands that we know exists. If we say that 32-36% of starting hands are suited then by dividing by four we get 8-9% of the time that the starting hand will be two diamonds. Based on the behavior seen in this hand the odds of that being the case probably go up significantly to about 10% per hand.

Now, if we do the same calculation on the odds of nobody having a flush draw (.9^6) we get 53% or roughly a 50% chance that at least one of your opponents is on a flush draw. That's a very significant probability and may even still be somewhat conservative given how the play has gone.