PS .25/.50 BB

[ThierryHenry]

I would have just checked the flop, hope the CO bet and call to bring in the PF limpers. You have to think you are against a FD and at MP3 probably has at least 2 pair. I don't know how the equity works out, but with so many players paying 4 bets to see the turn it probably is slightly +EV.

[ThierryHenry]

I just plugged some numbers into pokerstove assuming you are up against a FD and top 2 pair and 3 other random hands and it shows your OESD as having 13% equity.

[RemyXO]

-= GRUNCH =-

Ugh ... two outs are gone, since the flop is two-suited.
6 clean outs to the nuts - you are 4:1 to win by the river. Well, discount by possible higher straights, boats, blah blah.
You you got 25% equity. And you are putting 18% in the pot (after one fold). Pumping all the way is fine, the edge is high enough.

[Aaron W.]

The flop 3-bet is bad. And if it's bad, it means you're losing money. While it may be true that you have an equity edge right now (I'm not at all convinced that this is the case), you're passing up on future odds if you hit a straight.

** Why don't I think you have an equity edge? Even though you have 6 outs to the nuts, you're almost always facing a flush redraw. This means that even if you hit your straight on the turn, you lose 20% of the time on the river. So if you had those 6 full outs for ~25% equity, you need to cut it back to account for your losses.

Then you consider the fact that when you get raised here, AK is high on the list of hands you're facing, meaning that you really only have 5 outs to start, which is only about 20% equity, which means your adjusted equity is probably around 16-18%

[RemyXO]

Yuk. Flush redraws. We don't have 4:1 to win.
Strike my previous post ...

[OrigamiSensei]

Aaron (and anyone else that cares to address it), you're saying we're almost always facing a flush draw and at least one other person did as well. My gut wants to say that's true as well. So did I screw up my probability calculations? I thought that facing a flush draw only about 26% of the time seemed awfully low but that's what my numbers said and I don't see a flaw in the probability calculations I used - yet.

[Point Blank]

[ QUOTE ]
Aaron (and anyone else that cares to address it), you're saying we're almost always facing a flush draw and at least one other person did as well. My gut wants to say that's true as well. So did I screw up my probability calculations? I thought that facing a flush draw only about 26% of the time seemed awfully low but that's what my numbers said and I don't see a flaw in the probability calculations I used - yet.

[/ QUOTE ]

probability calculations do not address probable calling hands of the field ... nor would any pokerstove calculation give you any meaningful equity stat

your calculation would be meaningful prior to your first action