Fold the Nuts?

[ChaseHigh]

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This is the best situation I could imagine - anyone know of a situation where the correct play is to fold the nuts? Is that even possible?

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The nut hand can be an underdog. The ease of finding examples depends on how precisely you define the nuts.

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Ok, obviously nuts can be an underdog, but is there a situation where the correct play would be to fold them?

Because being a 47/53 dog is still worth a call just because of the pot odds that were created by preflop action.

But I suppose if you both had huge stacks, and there was no action preflop it might be correct to fold the nut straight if a straight flush draw went all in. And of course, you'd have to be 100% sure he had those cards.

To those of you saying "It's never going to happen, so who cares", that's why this is in the Poker Theory forum.

It's interesting (and a bit informative) to understand that a situation can arise where you have the nuts, and still only have one out twice.

[tarheeljks]

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even so this is not worth talking about

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Knowing the odds can help you to make better decisions. They determine how costly a semibluff is when you run into the nuts (although that might not be the worst hand to encounter), as well as how badly you might be behind in Omaha when you have the best made hand on the flop.

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there is almost no realistic situation you fold the nuts

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5-way limped pot. The flop was checked through.

Board: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Pot: $50
You have T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] on the button. The small blind pushes for $800. 3 folds to you. Call or fold?

Similar situations have been discussed both in the SSNL and HSNL forums because they happen in real hands. To decide whether to call, it is important to know how far behind T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] x you are whether you think it is worth talking about or not.

In another real hand, the hero flopped the nut straight on a two-tone board against a fish and a very tight player, with deep stacks. The very tight player's bets indicated that he had the nut straight, too. The fish indicated that he had two pair, a set, or a straight. Should the player knock out the fish, possibly getting free-rolled by a straight with the flush draw, or keep the fish in?

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this scenario is much more interesting than the original

edit: my original comment wasn't a general statement about this topic; i just think the original scenario is a little too contrived. in your examples there are obvious redraws and potential free rolls, but in the original the board is a rainbow.

[PantsOnFire]

I'd want 8c7c here.

However, I agree with some other posters as to the realism of such a scenario. Being pragmatic, I would concentrate on other holdem situations to master instead of one like this. It seems like Mike and Greg came up with this for shock value rather than educational value.

If you are really interested in such a question, check out Omaha Hi where the flopped nuts is in trouble much more often than in holdem.

[ChaseHigh]

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However, I agree with some other posters as to the realism of such a scenario. Being pragmatic, I would concentrate on other holdem situations to master instead of one like this. It seems like Mike and Greg came up with this for shock value rather than educational value.

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True, I should clarify that Greg submitted this as a entry into a contest for "Nightmare Hands', where people come up with a hand that seems great, but has very limited potential.

Weum admits:

"I hope you find this more interesting than just a fun piece of triviality about poker--I hope it is actually worth something. My dad thinks there is something to be learned from it, but neither he nor I could figure out exactly what that is. Anyway, enjoy teasing your brain with this one."

The entire article is here:

http://www.poker1.com/absolutenm/tem...7&zoneid=3

[TexRef]

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this situation is never going to happen, it really is silly to ever talk about it

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Isn't this what Mike Caro does best?

[ChaseHigh]

Sometimes you can learn alot about situations that do happen from situations that don't.

[Albert Moulton]

Looks like 87s is the favorite. And it looks like top set is drawing dead to the case 9. You have a 30:1 shot at the case 9 and the betting is capped on the flop already. So, if I think I can make 30 times that call during the big bets on the turn and river if I spike my 9, then I call. So, stack sizes are relevant to the decision in order to factor in implied odds. But if I miss my 9 on the turn, then it's an easy fold on the turn unless I'm somehow getting better than 30:1 pot odds which is unlikely if there is more betting and raising and reraising.

Holdem Hi: 406 enumerated boards containing 6s 9c 3d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
9d 9h 48 11.82 358 88.18 0 0.00 0.118
Ac Ad 12 2.96 394 97.04 0 0.00 0.030
Ks Kh 7 1.72 399 98.28 0 0.00 0.017
Qc Qd 5 1.23 401 98.77 0 0.00 0.012
Js Jh 1 0.25 405 99.75 0 0.00 0.002
6c 6d 27 6.65 379 93.35 0 0.00 0.067
3s 3h 26 6.40 380 93.60 0 0.00 0.064
8c 7c 108 26.60 282 69.46 16 3.94 0.286
5s 4s 62 15.27 333 82.02 11 2.71 0.166
7d 5d 83 20.44 296 72.91 27 6.65 0.238

[graarrg]

Hellmuth's book of poker stories has an example of this, where the nuts are drawing stone cold dead in Omaha high in a multiway pot. The player in question had a set of kings on a KT42 board up against a couple of straight draws and sets, or something like it.