NL200 - AK on a paired flop

[moldman]

Villain here is running at 18/10/1.5. We really haven't tangled at all until this point, and wasn't quite sure about my line here. Thoughts?

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $1/$2 Blinds - 9 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $227.10
BB: $130.05
<u>Moldman (UTG): $262.95</u>
UTG+1: $168.90
MP1: $133.60
MP2: $275.35
MP3: $200.00
CO: $207.95
<u>BTN: $192.00</u>

Preflop: Moldman is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (9 Players)
<font color="red">Moldman raises to $7.00</font>, UTG+1 calls $7.00, MP1 calls $7.00, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO folds, BTN calls $7.00, SB folds, BB folds

Flop: ($31) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 Players)
Moldman checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, <font color="red">BTN bets $20.00</font>, Moldman calls $20.00, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds

Turn: ($71) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Moldman checks, <font color="red">BTN bets $45.00</font>, Moldman ??

Usually I c-bet here like all the time, but this seemed like one of those cases where he could bet a hand I'm ahead of, but wouldn't call one. Then again, I could just suck.

[Eternal]

On that turn, I would've made like a half size bet like 40. And then fold if raised.

This situation sucks here but you gotta call and evaluate river.

[Albert Moulton]

I think a 1/2 pot cb on the flop would be better, then c/f if villain is fairly straight forward and wouldn't bet 1/2 the pot or more on the turn without at least something in this range (hands that call the pfr and would call a cb then bet the turn with this board):

AQs,KQs,QJs,JTs,AQo against which you have only 28% equity.

If you check the flop, his range of betting hands might be much broader. So, if you want to trap those weaker hands then c/c the turn, but then you have to make another awkward decision on the river. But if your read about villain betting with weaker hands was good on the flop, then nothings changed on the turn. So, call once you check.


On the river after c/c, you might want to block/fold the river. In villain's mind, you're passive line to the end and then a bet might appear as if you had KK or AK, so anybody raising a bet on the end has Qx at least. C/c on the river I don't like because many missed draws will often just give up and check behind. But a made hand will bet and you'll be in a bad spot to weakly c/f. So, figure how much you'd be willing to c/c on the river and bet that amount instead as a blocker. Probably something small like 1/4 the pot.