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#1
08-12-2007, 01:58 PM
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So....the flush hits on the turn
OK....I was a bit confused about this spot. Obv a FD is a decent part of his range on the flop. But at the same time, I really don't want to see another spade. So with that in mind, should I be betting or checking this turn?
Reads: Flop donker is 39/9/1.5 over 150 hands. The PFR is 66/25/1.5. A few hands before this one, I raise 78o preflop and he calls in BB. Flop A77, he c/c. Turn he c/r all in and his A9s hits a 2 outer for him to double up. Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $1/$2 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter) SB: $136.05 BB: $200.00 UTG: $154.40 MP: $227.45 CO: $80.00 Hero (BTN): $197.00 CO posts $2.00 Preflop: Hero is dealt 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 Players) <font color="red">UTG raises to $7.00</font>, 2 folds, Hero calls $7.00, SB calls $6.00, BB folds Flop: ($25) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 Players) <font color="red">SB bets $15.00</font>, UTG calls $15.00, <font color="red">Hero raises to $50.00</font>, SB folds, UTG calls $35.00 Turn: ($140) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players) UTG checks, Hero.....? 
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#2
08-12-2007, 02:04 PM
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Re: So....the flush hits on the turn
Check behind and probably fold to a decent sized river bet.
Given that he only called TWO bets on the flop, we have to weight his range heavily toward flushes. If you bet the turn and he pushes then you'll probably be pricing yourself in, when you likely only have 20% equity. The obvious problem with checking the hand on the turn is that it kinda turns your hand face up (although I'll check here a ton with the nut flush). But given his stats, I assume that he's a bit of a donk and will play his hand pretty straight forward.
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#3
08-12-2007, 02:04 PM
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Re: So....the flush hits on the turn
Shouldn't hero be raising a bit more on the flop? I know I usually raise at least to 60 here after there's a bet and call. As played, you have a PSB left, and he's shown a tendency to stack off light in the hand you posted at the top - just shove.
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#4
08-12-2007, 02:05 PM
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Re: So....the flush hits on the turn
i raise a lot more on the flop. pot sized raise is to $85. $75 maybe. but i think $50 is too small here. if he calls that then any turn is an easy shove.
here, bleh... any bet commits you. i probably check here and most of my reasoning is that he'll stack off on a board pair and we can still get value on a non-spade river. also, he'd need to have something like AsTx or JsTx that he donk/called the flop with. 7s6x i suppose is possible. i dunno we have a little more than pot. just a crappy spot cause i dunno if he's realyl stacking off that lightly on THIS specific board.
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#5
08-12-2007, 02:15 PM
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Re: So....the flush hits on the turn
Given the history in hand 1 I probably just get it in on this turn. Its pretty close though. Even though his hand does look like a flush draw a decent amount of the time he will be stacking off with loads of other one pair hands enough to make getting it in on the turn correct. Checking isn't terrible though because we only hate 7 river cards and we can extract better from his Tx/overpairs/underpairs without a spade.
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#6
08-12-2007, 02:53 PM
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Re: So....the flush hits on the turn
[ QUOTE ]
Given the history in hand 1 I probably just get it in on this turn. Its pretty close though. Even though his hand does look like a flush draw a decent amount of the time he will be stacking off with loads of other one pair hands enough to make getting it in on the turn correct. Checking isn't terrible though because we only hate 7 river cards and we can extract better from his Tx/overpairs/underpairs without a spade. [/ QUOTE ] Because he'll stack off with so many top pair typr hands don't we want to get a call? Is there any merit to this line of thinking: He has 97 left, the pot is 140. Bet 1/2pot (70) to try to get a call from his top pair type hands. Pushing will make him fold them more often which is really bad. He's still et bad odds for a FD & we have redraws, but the main thing is to exploit and get the value from his calling off light with top pair because that swings the whole equation in our favor big time.
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#10
08-12-2007, 03:49 PM
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Re: So....the flush hits on the turn
vvv standard turn shove w these stacks.
also, raise more on the flop.
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