22r, Button shoves 30bbs in, wtf

[pzhon]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
"...if you knowingly pass up a 60:40 opportunity, you're not a top player."

You seem to be overemphasizing survival.

[/ QUOTE ]

For hero to be a 60:40 favorite, villain has to shove with this range:
66+,A4s+,K8s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,A9o+,KTo+,QTo+

[/ QUOTE ]
No, AQs is 60:40 over many ranges, including any ace or pair. It does even better, 62:38, if you think the villain would not push with AA or KK, since many players would make a smaller raise to avoid wasting these hands.

[ QUOTE ]

But in this hand we are a coinflip AT BEST


[/ QUOTE ]
That's just not true. Make a few of these calls, and you'll find remarkable garbage.


[ QUOTE ]

.. and this is where stack size matters. I'll be much more willing to gamble in a 50/50 spot (or even 40/60 underdog) if I can afford it, and if it can result in me having a HUGE stack.

[/ QUOTE ]
You would gamble as a 40:60 underdog? Is this based on anything more than unreliable, unverifiable intuition?

I proved that when you are heads-up, the ICM always recommends against gambling with a disadvantage. This is true even when you have a huge stack and are considering trying to knock out a short stack. The ICM isn't everything, but you need a substantial reason to go against the normally sublinear value of chips. Are you sure your suggestions are consistent?

[Perrio]

This is an easy fold with the blinds being so little at this point in the mtt. Maybe if the blinds were 200/400 you could call here, your def calling if their 300/600.But at 75/150 its just not worth it to get into a big hand with AQ. Esp with no reads on the guy.

[black666]

[ QUOTE ]
No, AQs is 60:40 over many ranges, including any ace or pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

True.
The point I was trying to make is that villain has to shove pretty wide for hero to be a 60:40 favorite. Without any reads I don't think we can put villain on A3 or A4 in a $22R. Most of the time I see good hands afraid to play postflop poker (AT+, 55-TT) or premium hands afraid of getting cracked and/or trying to get paid off big with an allin..


[ QUOTE ]
You would gamble as a 40:60 underdog? Is this based on anything more than unreliable, unverifiable intuition?

[/ QUOTE ]

As a big stack..yeah. This is certainly not +cEV but +EV in the long run. It's like you don't even need cards to win big pots once you've got a dominant stack. You can push people around, abuse the bubble, get walks,...
I remember a $10R video from belowabove on PXF where he had a huge stack after the first break and took every gamble there was to build an even bigger stack. It's amazing, what you can do if people see you calling big allins just because you can afford it.

[ZeeJustin]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
But given the fact that you have almost 2x the stack of villain, I would be much more comfortable with this call than if it were for your tournament life.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is awful advice. Your should make the same play with T4700 or T20000 stack sizes.

[/ QUOTE ]

No you should not. The advantage of having a big stack is that you can afford to take those 50/50 or 40/60 gambles. With a stack of 20000 I instacall here. But if this were for my tournament life, I would fold. You can find a better +EV spot in the next 10 hands than calling 30xBB PF with AQs (especially against such a bad player and having position on him)

[/ QUOTE ]

This is incorrect. Pokerfarian is right. An edge is an edge is an edge. There are exceptions I suppose (especially in bubble situations), but this is not one of them.

I would call and expect to see A2-AJ a lot more often than AK.