Inflection point - - bad push?

[Jon_AK]

If you must know, opponent caught AK off when I pushed into him.

[4CardStraight]

I dont like it all that much, since the stack sizes dictate that BB should be calling you extremely wide...

Lets say he calls every ace, every king, every pair, and any time both cards are greater than 8 (which is actually a really decent calling range for him in this situation)

55% we win ~2400 (antes?) +1300
45% we are 33/66 dog in 22650 pot - 2000

So this push, if he calls with top 45% hands (every pair, every ace or king, and every time both cards are above 8), is negative EV of 700 chips (a large percent of our stack)


Now, he would have to be pretty tight calling to make this a +EV push... Some BB are that tight... but given the stack sizes I really think he would take any ace king or pair for sure, but is he calling with a hand like J9s or QTo or T9 ? dunno... if he is its a total fold.