Donkey?? should i play 22 in this situation

[chuckybrown7]

$100 tourney live at borgata AC with 5k starting chips and level is 1k/2k with 300 ante. i am 2nd at table with 53k. everyone else playing decent/tight except donkey who is chip leader with 75k and has sucked out about 4 times with A rag and JJ vs KK where he calls an all in for his tourney with Q on the board.

i am in SB. Super Donk is under gun and limps for 2k, like a donk would do. middle position raises all in for 9.5k which i would expect him to do with any decent hand and donk limping. everyone folds to me in SB with 1k already lost.

i look at 22.

Question: would you risk 9.5k, expecting donk to call, so you could play against donk heads up for side pot??

i would always fold this hand, but i really wanted to play side pot with donk. so i called. with implied odds, that i lose the 9.5k, but have a chance to take my remaining 43.5k against the donk and have a chance to stack him. for a total implied odds of 5 - 1 ( 43.5 - 9.5). so even if he had a pair i was 4 -1 dog and had a chance to stack him. my investment in main pot is considered lost, because i know the all in is decent and probably has me beat, but that is not why i call.

had this discussion with a friend and he said i was dead wrong to play and ended up telling me about this board, so this is my first post, and wanted to see if people agree or disagree with my reasoning.

THANKS

[creamfillin]

You're not nearly getting enough odds to make this call for set value.

[Andrew1593]

Here's the problem with your implied odds calculation. You said you are a 4-to-1 dog to an overpair, but that's only if you stay in the hand to see the turn and river. To crack his overpair (if that is indeed what he's holding), you need to make your set and if you miss on the flop and turn, he can punish you by forcing you to call extra bets. Let's say, for example, that you spike a 2 on the river. In order for your implied odds calculation to be correct, you have to assume that the donk will check the flop and turn when you miss and then call an all-in from you on the river. Maybe he's really that bad, but an all-in bet into a protected pot is extremely strong and will chase all but the worst calling stations away.

When you're calculating implied odds for a small pair, you need about 8-to-1. The odds of flopping a set are 7.5-to-1, so if you're calling PF for about 1/8 of your stack, and you expect to get it all in on the flop (or subsequent streets as long as your hand is still best) when you hit your set, then your PF call is correct. If you miss your set on the flop, you should usually fold to a bet.

Best case scenario here, you're 50-50 with the donk. I doubt I would ever make this call, but if I did, it would be because I had a reasonable expectation that the donk would check it down with me. This is called the Gentleman's Play or the Cooperation Play--since one player is all in, the pot is protected, and you will have to go to showdown to win it. By checking it down, two big stacks can increase the chances that the shortstack will be eliminated. This is basic game theory.

That being said, the guy is a donk. He probably doesn't know about the Gentleman's Play and that it makes sense to cooperate with another big stack so that everyone moves up a place in the money. I quite frequently see bets into protected pots with weak made hands. And guess what? The other big stack usually folds and the shortstack MORE than doubles up when he flips over a stronger hand. It's infuriating.

One more thing: don't forget that the PF betting is not closed. You could conceivably call here only to be reraised all in by the donk. This would be a kind of isolation play. At the very least, you need to have considered this option and know what your action will be.

[chuckybrown7]

u mention gentleman's play. and yes if we were at the final table and i knew we could knock out the short stack, i would entertain calling. to check down with the other chip leader and make more money. it would have to be a huge jump in money like over 2k or 3k. for me to even do that. but in this case, i was fully aware that i was not checking down. i was there to play the donk.

what did he limp under the gun with??? KQ, 10J, 45s? or 66, 44? or even AA, KK? he is a donk. i have no idea. all i know is i am 50/50 or 80/20 over the whole hand? it is cut and dry. no 60/40s or other chances. the dueces actually made it easy for me to make decisions. real easy.

what happens if the donk folds? well, he didnt, so u can at least say that was a good read. i think there was a less than 1% chance that he was gonna fold as the chip leader, running hot, playing like a donk, and so on. that was an easy read.

on my 9.5k, the pot is 30.5k 3 way with 22. i layed down 99 about 40 mins earlier vs an all in and a call and they both turned over AQ. i am sure we have all seen that before.

so no-one agrees with 22 call???? keep the comments coming, please. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[dant734]

No way to many of your chips from your stack to give up here. Not enough chips to win to make it worthwhile. My rule with low low 2's-7s pocket pairs is 10 percent of my stack if im calling a raise. Person im calling needs to have me covered. Some say 15 percent but I say 10 to be on the safe side. You need to figure there will be times your gonna hit your set and not get paid off.

[4CardStraight]

Clear fold. Not close.

Sorry.


4Card

[SuperUberBob]

Instafold. If he has a smaller stack than you, a reshove wouldn't be bad. If you call and he raises all-in, what do you plan to do? Fold and leave 9.5K in the pot?

[chuckybrown7]

super bob - thanks for your answer. yes i fold. i was prepared to pay 9.5k to see the flop and if i hit my 4-1 (or 7.5 - 1) if u look at just the flop. then i stack him.

lets look at what happens if i hit the 2 on the flop. he calls me all the way down and i win 43k on 43k and have a chance to wion main pot of 33k for a total of 119k.

if i miss the flop and the flop is all low cards (under 10) i bet 10k and he calls all the way down and i hope that he has KQ, like he would, and i win 30K+ and maybe the main for a total of 92k+ and i get to see the turn and river and hit set.

if i miss and he raises i have a decision, because he would raise with nothing, which is what i want.

if i miss the flop and he calls and has a higher pair, i lose 30k - 10k on the flop and 20k on the turn and that's what i get for playing against the donk.

overall it was a strong chance 80% he had overs, strong chance he would call my all in if i hit a set 80% and strong chance that he would not raise with the best hand, 80%. (he limped). i think i am good every way. to double up and not lose much more than 9.5k.

amy i rationalizing or is this valid poker?

[chuckybrown7]

dant - ok, so even the fact that he is a super donk, does not override the fact that i have to risk 20% of my stack. so if it was 10% of my stack, thus i have 95k, then u call no problem??

[Andrew1593]

chucky, I've been crunching the numbers for a bit so I can show you that you're simply not getting the implied odds to make this call.

Here's your best-case scenario, as you described it, when you spike a 2 on the flop. You get the rest of your stack in a sidepot against the donk, so technically the implied odds you were getting before the flop are (30.5+43.5)/8.5 = 8.7-to-1. Since these odds are slightly better than the odds of flopping a set (7.5-to-1), you might say that you are getting the implied odds to make this call.

But I think you'd be wrong. IMHO, those implied odds are based on two inaccurate assumptions: first, that 100% of the times you flop a set, you will get all your money in against the donk; second, that 100% of the times you flop a set, you will win both the mainpot and the sidepot. According to your read, we'll adjust the first assumption down to 80%. The second assumption is also not accurate, since even when we flop a set, we can still lose to flushes, straights, higher sets, etc. At best, our equity in a 3-way mainpot is probably 85% and our equity in the sidepot is probably 95%.

Here's the real math for your best-case scenario implied odds, correcting the assumptions as described:

(0.8(0.95*43.5+0.85*30.5)+0.2(0.9*30.5))/8.5 = 7-to-1.