First Betfair soccer bet, was this smart?

[TimsterToo]

I did my first test bet today and I wonder if I did the smart thing or that is was more of a way of the chicken thing to do.

I put money on Derby getting 3.4 on Betfair. My track of thought was that, besides the fact that I wanted to get my feet wet with anything, Derby has home advantage, just went up from the first division thus was still in a winning mood and is such a fighting team that they certainly don't want to lose their first home game of the season.

I think Derby was underestimated and as the start of the match got closer the payout changed to 3.1/3.0 so I took that as a good decision from my side to think 3.4 is a good line. (I do realise that it takes a lot more but the books are on their way and I'm just getting acquainted (sp?) with the mechanics of Betfair)

Once the match started Derby got the first goal in and this is where it got interesting for me. I checked Betfair and the odds changed dramatically. (of course)

Now I was offered 3.7 on a draw and 4.4 on Portsmouth winning. I simply took the "sure win" opportunity and bet the same amount on them too. So win, lose or tie I always win a bit.

Was this good thinking or would you guys have certainly let your money run on the win with Derby being one up in the first half?

[TheOffice]

It depends. There's no general answer to this question. Basically you bet Derby to score first. Had you hedged the Derby bet before kick-off for those (0.30/0.40 divided by 3.1 or 3.0) it would've been a smart thing to do. In-play it depends...

[TimsterToo]

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Basically you bet Derby to score first.

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Good point, it was a decision I made without having planned anything. Just decided to take the certain money but it pretty much boils down to what you say with a "backdoor" possibility of winning if they get behind and manage to overcome that.

Thanks for your reply!

[New001]

Assuming that your wagers weren't too large or otherwise too risky for you, doing this is going to be a mistake more often than not. The most common exception to "hedging is -EV" is if the hedge bet itself is +EV as well. There have been a few good threads on hedging, and I think King Yao had a few chapters on it in one of his books.

Good luck.

[dj_mercury]

In play depends on the odds you are offered. If you can get valuable odds also for going out and you have the perception that the match flow may change or is changing nothing wrong to edge the bet, otherwise stick to it. The latter is more often +EV.