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#1
08-10-2007, 07:05 PM
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How probable to go from nothing to something in short period of time?
Let's assume that John Doe is a winning player at $1/$2 LHE at Poker Stars with 2 BB/100 at a sample size of 1 million hands.
John has a friend who thinks that 'poker is all luck'. So John says let's bet make a bet. I will make 600 bucks (300 BB fro 1/2) out of 4 bucks (100 BB for 2c/4c) in 30 days with this conditions: 1. I will move up a limit if I have 300 BB for it. 2. If I have 150 or less BB left at the current limit I will move down. 3. I will play 4 tables at a time. 4. I will play 10 hours per day. Question: What chances does John have at failing/succeeding in your opinion. Saying it in a different way: What proposition bet would be +EV for John and where would the odds not be in his favour any more? PS: Don't ask me why John didn't move before playing all the way to a million hands at 1/2 with this winrate. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] 
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#2
08-10-2007, 10:19 PM
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Re: How probable to go from nothing to something in short period of time?
I'm no good with risk of ruin calculations.
I know I've seen some old threads on how to calculate it. I suspect that in your example your bankroll is too low (4 buy-ins) to have a high percentage chance of overcoming variance that would bust you out. Given a practically limitless opportunity to rebuy, then a 2 BB/100 win rate will obviously yield exactly 2 BB for every 100 hands you played. It's just a matter of time. And given a limitless amount of time, you'd make a limitless amount of money. You'd just have very sore wrists.
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#4
08-11-2007, 07:47 AM
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Re: How probable to go from nothing to something in short period of time?
[ QUOTE ]
Let's assume that John Doe is a winning player at $1/$2 LHE at Poker Stars with 2 BB/100 at a sample size of 1 million hands. [/ QUOTE ] That's only the start of the assumptions you need. You need the standard deviation and win rates at all levels to be played. Also, because you specify how long you will play in hours, you need to specify how many hands per hour you get. You should post the levels. I'll post them, but in the time it takes me to look these up and type them, I could be answering your question instead. Of course, I'd have to guess all of the parameters you didn't specify. 0.02-0.04 0.05-0.10 750 0.10-0.20 600 0.25-0.50 750 0.50-1.00 600 1.00-2.00 600 The numbers after the levels indicate how many BBs at the previous level equal 300 BB at the given level.
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