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#11
08-10-2007, 11:02 PM
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Re: Soccer - Correct Score > Winner?
This is WAY +ev. I figure, if you bet the following amounts, you will win about $1440 with every win, while risking only $694:
205 (1-0) 111 (2-0) 44 (3-0) 152 (2-1) 55 (3-1) 37 (3-2) 90 (0ther) 
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#12
08-11-2007, 01:12 AM
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Re: Soccer - Correct Score > Winner?
These lines are equivalent to 2.263 on Portsmouth to win.
Yes, some correct score lines are good. No, not blindly. (Except at Pointbet, but then they're broke for a reason.)
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#13
08-11-2007, 06:12 AM
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Re: Soccer - Correct Score > Winner?
[ QUOTE ]
Actually correct score is 44,2% to my calculations [/ QUOTE ] Yes, but "unquoted" covers a few draws and losses as well so it is not much good to compare it with ML without adjustment. Edit: Also applies to ImStillBen's caculation.
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#14
08-11-2007, 06:18 AM
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Re: Soccer - Correct Score > Winner?
[ QUOTE ]
This is WAY +ev. I figure, if you bet the following amounts, you will win about $1440 with every win, while risking only $694: 205 (1-0) 111 (2-0) 44 (3-0) 152 (2-1) 55 (3-1) 37 (3-2) 90 (0ther) [/ QUOTE ] 1440 is your RETURN, not win. Your win is only 1440-700=740 (approx.)
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#15
08-11-2007, 06:53 AM
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Re: Soccer - Correct Score > Winner?
After the season goes on I'm sure these bets could be +EV if you know your stuff and follow each team and know their tactics...
But at start of the season with newly promoted sides etc i think most correct score bets would be guesswork IMO.
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#16
08-11-2007, 12:22 PM
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Re: Soccer - Correct Score > Winner?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Actually correct score is 44,2% to my calculations [/ QUOTE ] Yes, but "unquoted" covers a few draws and losses as well so it is not much good to compare it with ML without adjustment. Edit: Also applies to ImStillBen's caculation. [/ QUOTE ] You're right. However, the probability of Derby scoring 4+ goals in a win/draw is less than the 3.2% necessary to make these bets better than the side, so the conclusion stands.
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#17
08-11-2007, 12:29 PM
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Re: Soccer - Correct Score > Winner?
Mansion offered incredibly soft correct score lines for World Cup. Some of Pinnacle's are pretty bad. All of the square Euro/Asian books have sky-high vig on these yet still manage to hang the occasional stinker. There are opportunities out there, but you have to know what you're looking for. Risk management is also a big problem with these for the unsophisticated bettor.
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