Semi-bluff turn and fire river UI EV

[Ricks]

I do not know if I am doing all of this correctly and I would appreciate any help.

I am trying to determine if semi-bluffing a 15 out draw on the turn and firing at the river UI is usually better than just folding on the river UI after the turn semi-bluff in LH.

Assuming I just call a turn bet and I will always win a bet on the river half the time when I hit my outs and fold if I don't. It is HU and 1 bet to me on the turn and there is 7BB in the pot, my EV to just call is:

(15/46*7.5)+(31/46*-1)= +1.77

My break even point and probability that Villain will fold (p) for just semi-bluffing the turn is:

p*(7.00) + (1-p) * (15/46) * 8.5 + (1-p) * (31/46) * -2 = 1.77
p = 0.062

I am now trying to find the value for p when I fire at the river whether I improve or not. I found the template for the following math in a post but I am not convinced that this is giving me what I am looking for or if it is correct.

p/3 is the probability that I will get a fold on the river in the event of a turn call (this is just an arbitrary number and may not be realistic).


p*7 + (1-p) * [(p/3) * (31/46) * 8 + (1 - p/3) * (31/46) * -3 + (p/3) * (15/46) * 8 + (1-p/3) * (15/46) * 8.5] = 1.77
p = 0.122

I would also appreciate any insight in evaluating the EV of these lines.

Many Thanks.

[Copernicus]

I didnt carry out the math but the formula looks ok. I dont like the p/3 assumption though. You will get vastly different calling rates when you hit one of your outs and the board looks that much more scary then you will when you dont hit your outs. Something like (2/3 p) folds when you hit your hand, but (1/3 p) folds when you dont hit your hand "feels right"

[Ricks]

[ QUOTE ]
I didnt carry out the math but the formula looks ok. I dont like the p/3 assumption though. You will get vastly different calling rates when you hit one of your outs and the board looks that much more scary then you will when you dont hit your outs. Something like (2/3 p) folds when you hit your hand, but (1/3 p) folds when you dont hit your hand "feels right"

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for the help. Is this what you mean?

p*7 + (1-p) * [(p/3) * (31/46) * 8 + (1 - p/3) * (31/46) * -3 + (p/3) * (15/46) * 8 + (1-.67p) * (15/46) * 8.5] = 1.77

P = 0.1354