100NL - am I supposed to fold QQ here?

[McStinky]

Villain is a 4-tabler. Doesn't seem all that great, basically average for a 100NL multitabler. Haven't seem him do anything out of the ordinary.

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.50/$1 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

Hero (SB): $168.90
BB: $123.30
UTG: $101.30
MP: $92.30
CO: $32.75
BTN: $38.95

Preflop: Hero is dealt Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 Players)
UTG folds, MP calls $1.00, CO folds, BTN calls $1.00, <font color="red">Hero raises to $5.50</font>, BB calls $4.50, MP folds, BTN calls $4.50

Flop: ($17.50) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $12.00</font>, <font color="red">BB raises to $32.00</font>, BTN folds, Hero calls $20.00

Turn: ($81.50) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">BB bets all-in for $85.80</font>, Hero?

[ay cabron]

i would either 3 bet the flop or call the turn. i think he's most likely to be on a combo draw. IMO his flop raise wasn't enough to protect a stronger hand against such a draw heavy board and it looks like the turn may have given him even more outs.

[Spartan1983]

I think you are beat. The only hands I see villain playing that you beat are TT and JJ.

[ftavatar]

in these spots oop i usually will fold the flop if i know im going to fold the turn unless i improve. if i call flop its to get to a safe turn and stack off. i think if you're going with the hand then u should jam the flop but tbh i think you're done here. i dont think whatever you do is bad as its prob near 0 ev against a range of 10's j;s sets 2pr and big draws:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

196,020 games 0.051 secs 3,843,529 games/sec

Board: 9c 5c 7d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.276% 44.74% 00.54% 87690 1060.50 { QQ }
Hand 1: 54.724% 54.18% 00.54% 106209 1060.50 { JJ-99, 77, 55, Ac7c, JcTc, 97s, 86s, 7c6c, 75s, 4c3c }


---

without reads id polly fold and note it. if hes a reg id get it all in for info and cos it is so marginal.
oh and someone mentioned about him not protecting his hand. i think this is sometihng to take into account against solid players but dont presume everyone thinks like you, or thinks at all....
a lot of players wont think about things like protecting their hands and have no concept of bet sizing in dif situations. and if he is a thinking player your range is weighted more to over pairs than a draw so he dosnt need to protect that much. btn is still faced with the pos of a 3 bet from sb and a 1/3 stack bet anyway. hope this helps

[McStinky]

Thanks for the analysis. I do think that a lot of the draws are less likely to call preflop, and are also likely to check the turn, so his range after the turn bet is likely worse (for me) than the one you proposed.

I see what you mean about folding the flop if I am going to fold the turn unimproved. Being out of position, that seems like the right approach.

[gimmetheloot]

if u call the flop better snapcall this turn. folding flop is fine though.

[bfc]

[ QUOTE ]

Board: 9c 5c 7d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.276% 44.74% 00.54% 87690 1060.50 { QQ }
Hand 1: 54.724% 54.18% 00.54% 106209 1060.50 { JJ-99, 77, 55, Ac7c, JcTc, 97s, 86s, 7c6c, 75s, 4c3c }


[/ QUOTE ]

I analyse it the same as ftavatar (and the other person who had combo draws as a big part of villain's range). However, if you really do have 45% equity then this is a call since you only need around 35% to call (you're getting slightly worse than 2:1).

Furthermore, depending on how villain plays I think there are plenty of other hands in his range.

For example, 67s, 78s, 89s all flopped a pair and a gutshot and villain may raise here to get you to fold overcards.

[As an aside, if you're the villain and have 8d9d do you raise here? Would your answer be different if it was heads up and you didn't have to worry about the button behind?]

AcXc is also possible with X being almost anything. If villain has Ac then he's probably putting you on an overpair at best and is expecting you to fold overcards to the turn shove since you can't have a flush draw. Even if you have an overpair, a hand like Ac6c has 18 outs against JJ-KK and Ac8c has 15 outs. If I had a combo draw I would play exactly like villain did. As played and in the absence of other information I think you should call the turn shove.

[AE6]

his raise size on the flop scares me to death. i'd probably just fold there.

[John49]

His raise on the flop scares me, too. Feel behind, unless he has something like nut flush draw and he's making a move. More likely you're genuinely behind. Obviously, this smells like the good 'ol set. It's just in the wrong hands.

[El_Hombre_Grande]

Fold flop unless he is over aggressive. Some players will make this move with a draw or small pair, assuming that you may have AK or AQ and that they have a lot of fold equity with this manuever. If he plays like this jam flop. Otherwise, a bet this large in this situation, I would fold to.

I agree with the posters that have said that the decision is a flop decision, and calling the flop only to fold the turn is a mistake.