Outside the boundaries of typical variance?

[Wahoo73]

I am mired in what I believe to be the deepest and longest slump I've ever been in at FTP. At the beginning of July, my balance at FTP was a little over $900 and as of last night it is down to $150. Since I do not use PokerTracker, I cannot give you a precise breakdown of how much I've lost playing what games, but I estimate the following:

15% of my play was at 3/6 stud
10% of my play was at 2/4 stud
35% of my play was at 1/2 stud
5% of my play was at 1/2 razz
15% of my play was at 2/4 LHE
20% of my play was at 1/2 LHE

I'm not sure of my exact number of hands played, but I did qualify at the Iron-level in the Iron Man competition during July, and am on a glidepath for Gold-level this month. During this six week period I have averaged playing approximately 300-350 hands per day, so I'd estimate that I have played between 12,000 and 13,000 hands total.

My reason for posting this is NOT to seek sympathy, strategic advice or suggestions on how to cope with this. Not having ever experienced a slump this long and deep, I'm just looking for opinions from those who perhaps have more experience with this if they consider what I have described as being within the limits of variance? In other words, am I just running bad or do I really suck (notwithstanding the fact that since I started playing at FTP last October I had only previously had one slightly losing month and had achieved a 600% profit over my initial deposit)?

[SuitedBaby]

In my opinion absolutely within the limits of variance but perhaps on the outer edge at something close to 250 big bets for the range of games you have played.

I'm sure you realize that once a player starts running bad their play often deteriorates at least for a time based on a number of factors including pressing, tilt, or simply a worsening of whatever caused the downturn in the first place, if there was a cause other than luck. There often is a cause for a downturn other than luck or overall lack of skill. You can know how to play well but get off track.

I once read something that described a monthly cyle of ups and downs in poker. I think it was by Mike Cappelletti. I also think it was backed up by very little in the way of logical explanation. In any event it seems that I often experience approximate cyles of one month going up and one month going down. The trick for me is to win more going up than I lose going down.

Hang in there, this too shall pass, but look critically at your game, pulling no punches and you'll come out of it.

Patty