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#1
08-09-2007, 09:46 AM
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I play terrible, but I make decent draw on the turn, now what?
Talk about one mistake after another. Only way i'll learn is by posting my shame. Feel free to call me names, i've been playing terrible since I got back online after summer holidays. Being cussed out is the only way I'll learn.
Villain is a total unknown. Party Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter) SB: $51.62 BB: $68.04 UTG: $45.75 CO: $51.13 Hero (BTN): $49.00 Preflop: Hero is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 Players) UTG folds, <font color="red">CO raises to $1.00</font>, Hero calls $1.00, 2 folds <font color="blue">I called the mini raise preflop because I expected SB and BB to come along for the ride. Both were pretty loose. Comments?</font> Flop: ($2.75) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players) <font color="red">CO bets $3.00</font>, Hero calls $3.00 <font color="blue">The flop is dry villain overbets, all I have is a gutshot. On a Q high flop I think this is a clear fold? Floating an unknown is Boo-urns on this flop, no?</font> Turn: ($8.75) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players) <font color="red">CO bets $8.00</font> <font color="blue">Villain has led into me on 3 streets he's showing a lot of strength. That said I couldn't have asked for a better card. Is it raisey daisey time? If so how much? If we raise we have to call a push right?</font> 
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#2
08-09-2007, 10:47 AM
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Re: I play terrible, but I make decent draw on the turn, now what?
Ick tough spot, I wouldn't raise because villain is certainly pushing a raise and that takes away our positional advantage to be thinking about calling an all-in on a draw based on pot odds when we could have called and thought about implied odds.
Given how fast he's playing this, I'd think for sure he's paying off the non heart 3's, and probably the hearts since it's a backdoor draw. If we hit our draw on the river, the only way I'm not raising hit inevitable bet is if it's the 2 or queen of hearts ... and he may have those cards in his hand so we won't have to worry about that often.
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#3
08-09-2007, 10:47 AM
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Re: I play terrible, but I make decent draw on the turn, now what?
Not got a huge problem with calling a minraise pre-flop but I'd more often reraise him on the button or just fold.
Fold the flop. You have nothing. He could have easily hit a Q. You don't the player so his overbet might be standard for him when he hits. Fold the turn. You have very little. Why would you want to raise? A raise here would be a semi-bluff. What reason do you have to think it would succeed?
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#4
08-09-2007, 11:05 AM
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Re: I play terrible, but I make decent draw on the turn, now what?
Yeah I didn't see him folding much on the turn and i'm not getting odds, so turn is an easy fold?
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#5
08-09-2007, 11:29 AM
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Re: I play terrible, but I make decent draw on the turn, now what?
You have 12 outs on the turn. This means you'll hit 25% of the time.
This is an implied odds calculation because you're going to stack this villain everytime you do hit because I don't see him dumping his hand with the strength showed so far. You have to call 8 into a 16.75 pot with effective stacks of 37 after the turn action, so you're getting (16.75+37)/8=6.7:1 to call. Easy call sir.
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#7
08-09-2007, 12:10 PM
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Re: I play terrible, but I make decent draw on the turn, now what?
[ QUOTE ]
You have 12 outs on the turn. This means you'll hit 25% of the time. This is an implied odds calculation because you're going to stack this villain everytime you do hit because I don't see him dumping his hand with the strength showed so far. You have to call 8 into a 16.75 pot with effective stacks of 37 after the turn action, so you're getting (16.75+37)/8=6.7:1 to call. Easy call sir. [/ QUOTE ] NH
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#8
08-09-2007, 12:20 PM
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Re: I play terrible, but I make decent draw on the turn, now what?
Essentially I need to make $16 on the river every time I hit to make this a break even call?
I have 4 to one odds to hit my draw. I'm paying $8 to see the river. 4X8-(pot+avg_river_earnings)=0 32-pot=avg_river_earnings 32-16=avg_river_earnings=16 Being in position I don't see this being a problem. However, would you still make this call OOP?
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