uNL odds quiz

[relativity_x]

SB: $49.50
BB: $52.95
Hero (UTG): $82.80

SB 3bet.

The immediate pot is 21 dollars. We have to call 6.50 to win 21 outright; however, it's reasonable to believe that the BTN will call too, so now it's 27.5 to win 6.50 outright. Approximately, 4.23:1.

Now, for implied odds, (27.5+(49.5-8.50))/6.5=10.5:1. This is just about neutral EV to call.

IMO, Hand 1 is a call.

[nebben]

I think for hand 5, we could put BB on anything from 22-88, 78, and any two pair combo. If we are throwing the straight out there, why wouldn't he call with most of the other connectors? As far as 77-88, you sometimes see this play when people put you on missed overcards, but its not the most likely holding. That said, I call because I think a lot of two pairs do this, not just sets and straights. The fact that higher pp's do this sometimes is kind of an added bonus i guess. any comments on this analysis?

[relativity_x]

hand 5 is an easy fold. We're 20% at best against two other villain's ranges.

[Kasane]

I have the biggest problem with hand 2, but maybe only because of the way it's put. We're not representing a set on that board -- we're repping a range of hands, including sets. That flop is so drawy that villain can't put us on a set and only a set. Expecting him to fold an overpair there is a little weird. OOP, he should be pushing a lot of overpairs if he knows we can be raising a draw. ..and his range is not limited to overpairs or sets either. Good overcard flush draws and other combo draws and sets all push there. Against that range, I think we have to call (once we raise -- I think raise is debatable, but we've been asked to ignore how we got here) getting 2-1 on our money. We're good to go against everything up to a set, and even a set we have significant equity against.

This is by no means a perfect range for villain, but I think we can intuit a call -- at least with what's been given as to villain's range.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

35,640 games 0.010 secs 3,564,000 games/sec

Board: 6h 3h 5c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.956% 40.76% 03.19% 14528 1138.00 { 5d4d }
Hand 1: 56.044% 52.85% 03.19% 18836 1138.00 { JJ+, 66, 44-33, AhKh, 8h7h, 5h4h }

[hoyasaxa]

has no one heard of the rule im talking about for hand 1? about calling reraises vs. a bigger pair?

[ajmargarine]

Poll results are pretty close on most of these.

IMO, there are two "easy" answers.

Hand 4 is a fold. Someone mentions above that there's no money in the pot but that's irrelevant. We have a chance to win 20 bb's and need to make the +EV decision.

Use pokerstove (google it) and plug in some ranges and see what the numbers look like. It's pretty hard to put a shortie on any kind of range here but just give it a shot with some worst case scenario stuff and see what the numbers look like.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

7,920 games 0.005 secs 1,584,000 games/sec

Board: Qs 7s 3c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.952% 33.91% 00.04% 2686 3.00 { 5s2s }
Hand 1: 66.048% 66.01% 00.04% 5228 3.00 { KK, AdQd, JsTs }

So we see villain is a 66-33 favorite, or a 2-1 favorite giving them a simple range. In the hand we are faced with a $7.50 call. We have to make >$15 on that $7.50 investment for our call to have a positive expectation long term. Because we can only win $10.75 for our $7.50, a call here would be -EV.

And the other easy decision?

Hand 2 is a call for Kasane's reasoning above.

[Kasane]

5-10 rule. I'm sure it's in the stickies -- and yes, much talked about and modified.

I think what almost everyone is missing about hand 1 is that we're in this pot with 2 other big stacks, not just one.

[Triggerle]

[ QUOTE ]
5-10 rule. I'm sure it's in the stickies -- and yes, much talked about and modified.

I think what almost everyone is missing about hand 1 is that we're in this pot with 2 other big stacks, not just one.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am leaning in the same direction as Kasane on hand 1. Dbitel's calculations come to the 18:1 implied odds in a HU situation. This is not equal to having to average 18:1 on our pre-flop call. In fact we only need to average around 11:1 on our pre-flop call. When we take 18:1 as a guideline we do this to create an extra buffer for the times our opponent will completely miss and give up.

In the case here not only is there money already in the pot but there is also more than 1 opponent in the hand. This makes it less likely that we will be against a total miss and increases our chances of extra money going in post-flop.

That said it is still close.

[AMadison]

I think the most important thing about hand 1 is that due to the size of the pot and the positions of the various players, when we hit our set on the flop, somebodies entire stack will get put into the middle almost everytime. With this kind of action there aren't to many hand/flop combonations where SB, and BB could easily check/fold. We are going to almost always be looking at a TPTK or overpair situation from one if not both blinds. And because they both act before us, it is reasonable to say that at least one of them will put chips in the middle. Due to the size of the pot, assuming semi-intelligent bet sizing this bet will be somewhere in the range of $15-$20 (if the button folds), And $20-$25 if the button plays. Therefore, our re-raise when we make our set would be only another $25-$30, at which point the villian would not only be likely to convince himself he's pot commited, but would be getting 3:1 odds or so to call. So the most important thing isn't if we can get villian all in or not, one of them is almost sure to play (and 2 wouldn't surprise me either if SB bets, BB calls/raises). The most important thing is how often we make a set and don't win. I could throw out a number, but I honestly don't know where to even approximate the chances that our set is no good. It was posted earlier that best case scenario we still lose 20-30% of the time we make a set. I think for this to be a proper call, our set has to be good about 80-85% of the time we hit it (that's assuming we stack off everytime we make a set and it doesn't win).

[DarkMagus]

Here's my responses/reasoning without reading other posts

1. Fold, you need to average a win of $49 or so each time you hit a set. It's close but you have to remember that you won't always win when you hit your set, and even if you do end up with the best hand it's not guaranteed that you'll stack one of them (though it's likely).
2. I call. Just because he can lay down an overpair doesn't mean he always will, and he may also have a draw. And we're getting well over 2:1.
3. Call. Our flush draw should almost always be good here, and our overcards will be good sometimes given the read on the BB. We almost have the odds to call with a flush draw, so add in the overcards and I think the call is worth it.
4. Fold. Nowhere near good enough odds since we have no draws in addition to our flush draw. Only if he's on a complete bluff are our odds even close, and even then they're not that close.
5. Getting 2.4:1. However BB could have hearts or a 7 which reduces our odds. He could also have 2pair+, even further reducing our odds. I fold.