AQs vs. a dealer and a new guy.

[cowboy billy]

woops, I made a mistake by giving SB A9s+ in his range on the flop, but I don't think he'd be 3-betting AT or AJ in this spot

if we narrow SB's range a bit and assume we knock out UTG+1 by raising, we'll have ~22% equity

Board: Ad 9h 4d

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 22.240% 12.27% 09.97% 2430 1973.50 { AsQs }
Hand 1: 77.760% 67.79% 09.97% 13423 1973.50 { 99, 44, A9s, Jd9d, Td9d, 9d8d, AQo+ }

so I'd still cap, getting roughly 5:1 as a 3.5:1 dog IP, but it's a lot closer, as I had expected when I started out in my first post

[Hass]

Ok, for the record, I folded the flop. Lisa called down and sb showed the winner.

If I would have capped and sb led out on the turn it's an insta-muck correct?

How would this change depending if Lisa called 4 or folded for 4?

If she calls 4 and sb leads the turn there is no way I can call. But if she folds and sb leads then we are stuck in a tough spot again. NO?

[cowboy billy]

if we cap flop and SB leads turn we're toast

even if we get it HU and the turn is like the 2h, we'll have to fold

honestly, I can't think of a single hand we beat that SB would bet on the turn after we cap flop

SB would have to be suicidal to fire the turn on a combo draw after we've shown so much strength on the flop

[ProfessorBen]

Hand 2: 16.228% 15.06% 01.17% 185345 14386.00 { 77-22, AQs-A9s, J9s, T9s, AQo-AJo }

I don't think it's safe to say that villain wouldn't coldcall with AK or 88+ just because she is described as loose and aggressive. Range seems a little liberal to me.

[aK13]

I call and reevaluate on the turn.

I wonder if I missed something, but I'm really surprised by the number of people advocating folding.

[ackid]

Call and re-ev on turn. I dont think laggy dealer is folding to a 4-bet here and were prob. behind.

[AragornX151]

I'm folding. A check/3-bet is a really strong line, and given how little we have invested right now, I'd rather not get involved. Plus, we're not closing the action--it could get capped. And if it does and a blank falls on the turn, are we folding to one bet? The fact that the player who c/3-bet is a TAG puts this one into clear muck territory for me.

I instinctively agreed with Cowboy Billy that AK is probably a cap, but I'm not sure it's right. Is AQ really that likely of a holding for either villain? If not, then the hands are really basically the same. Also, the fact that your cards are black makes things even worse.

[Hass]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm folding. A check/3-bet is a really strong line, and given how little we have invested right now, I'd rather not get involved. Plus, we're not closing the action--it could get capped. And if it does and a blank falls on the turn, are we folding to one bet? The fact that the player who c/3-bet is a TAG puts this one into clear muck territory for me.

I instinctively agreed with Cowboy Billy that AK is probably a cap, but I'm not sure it's right. Is AQ really that likely of a holding for either villain? If not, then the hands are really basically the same. Also, the fact that your cards are black makes things even worse.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is exaclty what I thought as I played the hand. There are many people that I cap this flop against, but not this one. I'm not sure who he is, but from what I have seen he has a brain and is not totaly insane.

[aK13]

If you guys were SB would you check/3bet KQd here?