NLO8 $100 - Strong drawing hand faces turn overbet

[BlueBear]

Villain is a laggy donk and is likely to overvalue his hands. I called the flop to prevent a 3-bet from a set, for deception and to rope him in if he has a weaker hand.

Turn over-bet is real weird and I do not have the odds if he has a set, what's my play here?

Omaha hi-lo 9 max

SB: posts small blind $0.50
BB: posts big blind $1

Dealt to HERO [3s 5c Ad Ac]
3 folds, MP: calls $1, 1 fold, HERO raises to 5, 1 fold, VILLAIN (BB) calls, MP folds

*** FLOP *** [2c 7s Kh]
VILLAIN: bets $9, HERO: calls $9

*** TURN *** [2c 7s Kh] [Tc]
VILLAIN: bets $49, Hero

I have $84.50 left.

[Kuso]

what's his range for this turn bet?


against a lag (assuming a WIDE range) and with position, i'd push this turn as a default. if villain has air, you're not likely to get much more out of him. if he's on a draw, you are charging. if he's ahead, you have outs.

the only exception is if he'll push any river whether he hit or not. in that case, you might want to put a turn call and river call into the probability mix.

[Omaha8sPoker]

Way to big of a hand to fold...The only person I would consider folding to would be the tightest of tight players and even then I probably wouldn't...Way to big of a two way draw and I would be willing to venture that your low is uncounterfeitable too...

[I dunno]

Reraise the flop and try to get it in.

[ QUOTE ]
Turn over-bet is real weird and I do not have the odds if he has a set, what's my play here?


[/ QUOTE ]

You do have the odds to call when he has a set, but you should shove. The best hand he'll have most often will be two pair, and he could have as little as naked flush draw. If you hadn't picked up the flush draw it would be a tougher choice having not raised the flop.

[gochiefs19]

Quite possible that's he playing a hand like AKQJ or AKQT and saw a speculative hand become legitimate after the turn. On such a draw heavy board, he can't want to play something like that on the riv, so even if he likes his hand, he's trying to force you out before any card hits.

[Assani Fisher]

I would definitely make a big raise on the flop.

I'll go away from the crowd and say that I'd fold the turn. At that level there are plenty of easier opportunities, and I don't think you have any fold equity. If the turn was lower than 2 of the flop cards, then I'd give more weight to top 2 pair. As is, this screams set to me.

[gochiefs19]

Even against a set you're not in terrible shape. A hand like KK65 (0 clubs) has 62.5% EV and KQJT is a dead split.

Also, you can't completely discount the possibility that his high hand is worse than yours with the same low draw, maybe AK3c4c, AKQ3 or something similar. Against AA35 (2 clubs), those hands have 21% and 25% EV, respectively.

[I dunno]

[ QUOTE ]
Reraise the flop and try to get it in.

[ QUOTE ]
Turn over-bet is real weird and I do not have the odds if he has a set, what's my play here?


[/ QUOTE ]

You do have the odds to call when he has a set, but you should shove. The best hand he'll have most often will be two pair, and he could have as little as naked flush draw. If you hadn't picked up the flush draw it would be a tougher choice having not raised the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nevermind, I didn't realize this was NL so I just assumed he was betting the pot on the turn. Sorry.

It still doesn't change the fact that you shoud raise the flop, and as played I still think you should raise the turn. You need a good read to believe that his range is ahead of yours on either street if he is indeed LAG.

[TomG]

You need to go with your read and raise the flop. You said villain is a "laggy donk likely to overvalue his hands." Therefore his range is wide and you should not fear a set. Yes, occasionally he'll have a set. But in general with your hand against this type of opponent it is very important to make him pay for being a "laggy donk likely to overvalue his hands." You do that by raising the flop and charging him a heavy price to continue.