FTP 50/50: Flopped set on UGH river - Page 2

yellowbastard · #11 08-07-2007, 05:31 PM

That flop is loaded with draws and the pot is more than your stack on the turn. You have to protect your hand. Go AI. Maybe he calls with two-pair or less.

JoeSchmo · #12 08-07-2007, 05:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]
no, youre nuts

look at that board. flush draws, MOST hands that would call a raise hit this board somehow, and thats dangerous when many hands have draws. oh wait, youre right, we have a set, who cares about the board texture. lets bet tiny so he can chase draws!

that advice is so bad on this board

[/ QUOTE ]

Where did I advocate betting tiny? My issue was almost potting it on the flop vs. halfpotting or so like OP did. If you pot it, he knows you're committed to the hand and won't make a play on you and may even fold a pretty decent hand. If you bet 600ish, he may think you're leaving yourself chips behind and he can push you off your hand.

As for the turn, you guys are right about the draws I suppose and pushing is best.

Pants Optional · #13 08-07-2007, 05:53 PM

so youre saying pushing the turn is now right, but youre STILL advocating a tiny bet on the flop so you wont be able to shove the turn without it being a big overbet?

OatmealJoe · #14 08-07-2007, 05:58 PM

[ QUOTE ]
so youre saying pushing the turn is now right, but youre STILL advocating a tiny bet on the flop so you wont be able to shove the turn without it being a big overbet?

[/ QUOTE ]

Shoving the turn is only a 2/3 POT bet. It would be even less if one had bet more on the flop. I'm not sure how a less than PSB constitutes a big overbet.

Pants Optional · #15 08-07-2007, 06:02 PM

ok i misread the stacks there, but i still think a bigger bet is in order on the flop, hes likely to have hit this flop, you also want to charge draws which are also a good part of his range, then if i have it right, you shove all in on the turn, and he would still be making a mistake calling with a draw unless its a combo draw (4-1 at least, he would be getting like 3 to 3.5-1? i dont really do the math, i just estimate but that sounds right)

fsoyars · #16 08-07-2007, 06:14 PM

FWIW the reason I bet 550 on the flop wasn't to induce a call, but to induce a raise. Bear in mind, villain has a very big stack, he's the tourney CL. Also, I wouldn't call it tiny, it's ~1/2 pot. I thought it was quite likely that if I led out with a weakish looking bet, he would raise if he caught a piece. As has been mention, given this board texture, it's likely that he caught a piece.

Perhaps the turn check was indeed bad. Again, given his stack size and the board texture I thought if I checked he was likely to bet at which point I could shove.

Pants Optional · #17 08-07-2007, 06:17 PM

sounds like youre trying to play fancy to induce something from him. youre too short stacked to be doing it. play it straightforward and double up. you cant risk letting him see a free card, as you can see what happens on the river. your flop bet is letting him see a very cheap card. i almost never count on my opponents raising/betting for me, unless i have a read that he will

Dunkman · #18 08-07-2007, 06:31 PM

I really don't know why this thread has so many replies, this is just absurd. Bet more on the flop, get it in on the turn. Not because you don't want to get sucked out on by a draw, but because you don't want a draw to spook HIM. There's no way he's going to be able to get away from any A he called with PF because of your short stack unless the board does something crazy by the river. Bet 800 on the flop and shove the turn, I'm not even commenting on the river as played because it's irrelevant.

Coz · #19 08-07-2007, 06:38 PM

I think you could have gotten away with a limp preflop but I don't mind a raise. On the flop I would have bet more, this looks to me like a flop where your either win alot of chips or lose alot of chips. I would have bet near the size of the pot for a few reasons. 1) If he has AT, or AJ+ he is calling or re-rasing on a board like this, and you would prefer to get all the money in now as opposed to later streets. 2) There are alot of draws out there, he could have something like KQh, KTh, QJh, there are straights, flushes and various combo draws that will pay and you want to make them pay as much as possible. The turn is a great card and I think I would have shoved with it. He may have a straight but that is unlikly, it is more likley that he hit two pair or a pair and a draw. Make him pay and risk doubling you up. If he calls with a draw or a combo you are still ahead and you take away some of his outs. As played, I would strongly consider folding if your stack was bigger but because of all the money in the pot, I think you might have to call and pray that he has two pair.

bluffcakes · #20 08-07-2007, 06:49 PM

Definitely shove the turn, as played I would call the river.

If you fold you have 1440 with 80/160 blinds. If you call you go up to ~5000. In a cash game or STT I can see a fold here but in an MTT you have to accumulate chips and folding here leaves you too short. Also, it's not like you showed any strength, you did a weak Cbet and checked down, this could easily be a bluff.

I think most people advocating a fold here looked at the 15000 bet and didn't realise its actually a 1440 bet on the river.