KK on BTN. I should lay this down.

Big Pink Monkey · #1 08-07-2007, 12:59 PM

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (9 handed) internettexasholdem.com

MP3 ($110.80)
CO ($235)
Hero ($327.85)
SB ($227.80)
BB ($258.70)
UTG ($163.30)
UTG+1 ($269.15)
MP1 ($245.50)
MP2 ($90.50)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
6 folds, Hero raises to $6, 1 fold, BB raises to $24, Hero raises to $60, BB calls $36.

Flop: ($121) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $100, BB raises to $198.7, Hero calls $98.70.

Turn: ($518.40) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)

River: ($518.40) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)

Final Pot: $518.40

I really thought he had AA. I was right, but is this an automatic laydown or an automatic call. Afterward, he said he was surprised it took me so long to call. My initial instinct was AA, but then I started thinking he might play JJ or QQ the same way. I talked myself into the call. Should've followed the Brunson rule.

da_fume · #2 08-07-2007, 01:01 PM

Don't see anything wrong with this.

AmonRaa · #3 08-07-2007, 01:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Should've followed the Brunson rule.

[/ QUOTE ]

Which is?

Big Pink Monkey · #4 08-07-2007, 01:15 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Which is?

[/ QUOTE ]

Your first instinct is usually the right one. Too many times, I make a good read and then talk myself into the villain having a wider range. I was certain I was beat, but couldn't lay down KK. I don't think that's a winning way to play.

CazicT · #5 08-07-2007, 01:21 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Which is?

[/ QUOTE ]

Your first instinct is usually the right one. Too many times, I make a good read and then talk myself into the villain having a wider range. I was certain I was beat, but couldn't lay down KK. I don't think that's a winning way to play.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't believe laying down KK on this board getting 4.25:1 pot odds is a winning way to play, so nice call.

Now maybe there was something else you could've done to prevent yourself from being in this position, but frankly, I don't see what. I can't imagine not putting in the 3rd raise PF, and when checked to on the flop, I can't imagine not betting.

I say NH. AA vs. KK is a cooler, don't sweat it.

Big Pink Monkey · #6 08-07-2007, 01:37 PM

Let's be more explicit about my "instincts." When he smoothcalls the 3bet, I'm already thinking he's got aces. At least TT+. Then he checks the flop. He's either got nothing or a whole lotta something; he's either afraid or very confident. When the raise comes, I don't see any way he doesn't have AA or TT. Granted, I'm getting pretty big odds, but not to either of those hands.

OTOH, I could've saved that last 100 at best. Sadly, this was not the critical hand in my night.

Berge20 · #7 08-07-2007, 01:46 PM

Did you have any reads on the player?

Big Pink Monkey · #8 08-07-2007, 01:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Did you have any reads on the player?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not much. Seemed competent, pretty aggressive. 13/10 and he generally folded to steals.

seki · #9 08-07-2007, 02:13 PM

Too bad you don't hold the Ks. Call and pay off the cooler.

CazicT · #10 08-07-2007, 02:28 PM

Please tell me where my math or reasoning is wrong.

From PokerStove

K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Vs. AA on this flop is 8% vs. 92%

So, your EV on a call when he has AA is
(0.08 * 419.7) + (0.92 * -98.7) = -57.22

K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Vs. QQ on this flop is 89% vs. 11%

(0.89 * 419.7) + (0.11 * -98.7) = 362.68

362.68 / 57.22 = 6.3

So, if the villian has QQ even 1 time in 7 you will break even.

So you essentially need to be 85% sure he would not take this line with QQ.

Now this doesn't even touch on the fact that he could have A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (you haven't seen the turn yet). This will help our cause even more and I believe, though I haven't done the math, you need to be well over 90% sure he has aces to lay this down.

I know your smelled the aces and so it seems like you might be over 90% sure, but really, 90% is a huge degree of certainty.