Prop bet and a math ?

[Sojumaster]

I ran a simulation on it, and I hit 1 of the 3 cards on the flop 54.4% of the time after 100,000 flops.

I could not figure out the exact formula for it though.

[ShaneP]

If you don't make any corrections for people's holdings, the probability of not getting any of those cards on the flop will be 40/52 * 39/51 * 38/50. First card on the flop--there's 40 'good' cards out of the 52 in the deck. second card, we've already got one of those good cards so now there's 39 cards out of 51. This winds up being 44.7%

The total prob of getting at least one of those three on the flop is then 55.29%.

Shane