#1
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Flush + 2 overs facing all-in 5NL
I think this may be a (small?) leak in my game. What is the standard play in this situation? Villain is 62/6/.5 over an insignificant sample size.
Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.02/$0.05 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter) SB: $4.68 BB: $6.49 UTG: $3.36 Hero (CO): $16.99 BTN: $5.81 Preflop: Hero is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 Players) UTG calls $0.05, <font color="red">Hero raises to $0.25</font>, BTN folds, SB calls $0.23, BB folds, UTG calls $0.20 Flop: ($0.80) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 Players) SB checks, UTG checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $0.50</font>, SB folds, <font color="red">UTG raises all-in to $3.11</font>, Hero...? |
#2
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Re: Flush + 2 overs facing all-in 5NL
Call, you're a slight favorite against a pair and a big favorite against a weaker draw. There's also over 20bbs already in the pot. This is very +EV.
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#3
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Re: Flush + 2 overs facing all-in 5NL
Standard call.
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#4
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Re: Flush + 2 overs facing all-in 5NL
Thanks guys, just needed some reassurance.
I had been running over the table the past few orbits so I put him on a ten or a lower pocket pair, maybe another draw. Sure enough, he had 108o and I hit my flush on the river. |
#5
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Re: Flush + 2 overs facing all-in 5NL
Call Call Call
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#6
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Re: Flush + 2 overs facing all-in 5NL
The only thing you are not ahead of his is a set, and he most likely does not push allin with a set here, so you can say that you 100% ahead of his range here, call every time.
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#7
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Re: Flush + 2 overs facing all-in 5NL
Perhaps contraversially, I would not call here. I would need more outs to call. I would call with Ac6x (which could give me 14 outs to a flush, trips, two pair -- granted, Ac6x is not a raising hand, but I use it to illustrate the thinking), but I would not call with AcKc (9 outs). Perhaps I am too nitty, I dont know!
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#8
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Re: Flush + 2 overs facing all-in 5NL
reasoning:
With 9 outs, the probability of a flush with 2 cards to come is 35%. Villain is loose, so can't necessarily add fold equity to make things more positive EV. With 13 outs to something decent, we have probability of 48%. We can't anticipate additional folding equity EV from loose villain, but I am happy with 50% odds. |
#9
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Re: Flush + 2 overs facing all-in 5NL
[ QUOTE ]
reasoning: With 9 outs, the probability of a flush with 2 cards to come is 35%. Villain is loose, so can't necessarily add fold equity to make things more positive EV. With 13 outs to something decent, we have probability of 48%. We can't anticipate additional folding equity EV from loose villain, but I am happy with 50% odds. [/ QUOTE ] If he has no pair, we're a huge favorite, probably 80% or more to win. If he has one pair, we're usually a slight favorite with 15 outs, though maybe 12 outs if his kicker is an A or K. The rare times he has a two pair or set, we still have a decent draw to win. Overall, our chances are definitely good enough to call. I think folding here is a pretty big leak. |
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