3bet AQo OTB, 2/4nl

[ajloeffl]

You got yourself into this mess by not betting the flop. He could either think you have QQ/JJ and is trying to push you off your hand, or he could have KK and hit his set on the turn or 77/88/AK/AA and be value betting. You get to play the guessing game since you let him take the driver's seat. The bet seems fairly big on the river if he is hoping for a call. Do you have some betting patterns on his river value bets?

[tagtastic]

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Do you have some betting patterns on his river value bets?

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I have no meaningful stats on the villain during this hand, I've only been at the table just over one orbit, in that time he hasn't done anything weird, raised twice pf and took it down both times I think.

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So everyone thinks betting the flop is best when he's going to fold worse hands and call or raise with better a huge percentage of the time? I don't think this is best against someone I have zero history with.

[Stefan_K]

Tricky spot, I like your flop check.
Thing is that the river card is not a good card. If he seams nity a fold might be good it's tricky to find hands that he can play this way.
I often look for resons to call and villian might have a flushdraw at the turn like 98s. It might be true that this is a fold but it's very close in my opinion, i don't mind a call here

[jfish]

no reads, play same and call riv. 14/11 play same and fold riv.

[Josh.]

i cant believe anyone would fold AQ here. if i'm him i'm value betting weak aces

[jfish]

14/11s dont show up with worse aces do they?

[AAismyfriend]

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14/11s dont show up with worse aces do they?

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[Josh.]

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14/11s dont show up with worse aces do they?

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just talking about the main question. 14/11 obviously fold, probably turn

[jfish]

yea so we agree.

[cts]

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is AJ (or a smaller Ax) really calling 3 streets here?

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if they call preflop and they flop top pair I sure as hell wouldn't count on em folding

just bet the flop and approach the hand from a value perspective rather than playing it defensively (obv sometimes you will run into AK / set but still I think this is better for sure).

and with bluffs you'll usually bet this flop, by checking you look so showdown bound you never induce any bluffs, by betting he may at least CRAI with middle pair and some backdoor draws etc

when you are only betting this flop with top set or bluffs your range is pretty damn polarized, and I know at least I don't get top set all that often, so I'd assume my opponents would be able to take advantage of this