put it in here?

[discspinner1]

99 UTG+1, Sunday Million. Stack 10k; 1/3 avg blinds 500 / 1000 w/ 50 ante. Table mostly good players playing good hands. Push or fold? Called by JJ and busted.
Interestingly, I told myself 1 minute before that if I got 88 I would fold. However, I wasn't able to fold 99. I wasn't afraid of flipping, as I needed to double a few times to have a chance to money. My stack was 1/3 of the avg.

[TexRef]

Standard push imho.

[Stumpy]

(Good Push.)

There are 6 hands you're in really bad shape if they call: TT+.
Everything else you're 50/50 or better against.
There are 30 combinations of those hands, out of the remaining 1325.

Odds someone has one of those hands is 1-(1295*1294*...*1289)/(1325*1324*...1319).

Thats = 15% of the time, and you'll lose 5.6k on average when that happens. { 12k(.2) - 10k(.8) = -5.6k. }

All other hands you're 50%+ to win against.

If someone calls you're around 55% to win on average, or ~+2k.
If everyone folds, you pick up the blinds and antes, which is ~2k.

So pushing was worth 2k*(0.85) - 5.6k*(0.15) = 860 chips.

66 is ~+200 chips and probably the break-even point for pairs.

[SuperUberBob]

Easy shove.

[4CardStraight]

The relevant point here is the post that shows all the math.

From this position, with this stack size, you can push it all in AND TURN YOUR CARDS FACE UP and its +cEV.... any fold equity is gravy on top of these mashed potatos.

[discspinner1]

Well, the question here is "Is math relevant?". Sure, it may be +EV to make the push, but that is only in terms of tournament chip. Should I also consider the likelihood of getting a better hand within the next 10 - 12 hands that is less likely to be dominated.

A related question would be what is the stack level at which this would always be a push.

[4CardStraight]

yes, the math is very relevant. Your still quite a long ways from the escalating payscale, so at this point chip ev is really money ev for the most part. If you fold, you are due to pay the big blind shortly. The point is that from this position 99 is a great hand, so good that you could push it and turn it face up and still be EV... Anyone behind you that calls too loose is just extra +EV. You no where near have a stack size where folding yields tangible +$EV, so therefore you need to take every +ChipEV shove that you can.

[higher_energy]

think you are flipping most of the time but thats the best case scenario + virtually 0 FE but not much we can do here given how short stacked we are

BUT, lets say you have a hand like 22-99, KQs, A10-AJ. What do you do or what would you rather do> Would you rather push this range UTG here with your stack - avg. stack at the table is roughly 30bb with some 50bb stacks so you know you dont have much FE but the blinds are coming and its likely the best hand you will see. SO, push here OR would you rather push like K9, Ax, any pair, Q10 type hands in the CO or BTN if its folded to you.
essentially, do we make a riskier play/sqeeze with much wider range so that we are not forced to make such a move with a slightly better hand but almost no FE.

did that make sense cause i feel like i am rambling

[4CardStraight]

We shouldnt fold +$EV situations. Folding here is not +$EV. Pushing is +$EV. Theres really not much cause for debate here. If our opponents are too loose all the better, we would love to be all in as a 55/45 favorite WITH overlay.

[discspinner1]

Dumb question. What is Overlay? (overlap? or 99 vs A7?) Anyways, w/ 10 BBs I personally don't push steal from button or CO unless its something like JTs, A(1235)s, where I can draw out if called. I think pushing was the correct play b/c
1) excellent fold equity
2) +EV if called
3) need to double up with as many chips at hand as possible (as opposed to another 1/5 stack then doubling)
4) no guarantee of better hands
5) UTG+1 push might even fold AQ or AJ, as might be the case with good players on the table.

So only hands I'm really afraid of are the most unlikely, someone w/ TT may also fold. IMO, I may not even call JJ here, for example half my stack for a flip, depending on any read of how tight the person w/ 10 BBs is simply because 10 BBs is still quite a decent chip size that is not overly desperate.

Any comments?