Did I overplay this?

[Assani Fisher]

Forget exact details of hand, but I'll try to recall as best as possible...

$1/2 PLO8 on FullTilt, 7 handed

Folded to me in MP. I raise to $7 with A358 with the ace suited.

LP calls, SB calls.

Flop is 5-5-T rainbow. SB checks, I bet pot, LP folds, SB calls.

Turn is a 3 giving me a full house and A8 low draw. SB checks, I bet pot again, he check raises. I was pot committed enough that I had to call even if I was drawing dead for high just on the chance that my low draw could've got me 1/2 the pot, so I called. He had TT and took the entire pot.


I realize that some wouldn't raise preflop, but other than that does anyone like any other play throughout the hand?

[Omaha8sPoker]

I think alarm bells start to go off when he flat calls the flop...I think a flat call is one of two hands TT or A5...I can't see T5 NOT raising here...I don't think T5 can give an over pair-5 a "free draw" at a full house...So when you fill up on the turn you have to figure which hand he has, the TT or the A5...I think you can check your hand behind on the turn as you are either WAAAAAAAY ahead or WAAAAAAAAAY behind...

I think it is very easy for me to sit here and say that as I probably woulda played it the same way as you did...I hate giving an A5 a "free shot" at 1/2 me with a low that is better than my A8...But in saying that I don't want to give the A5 the free shot the problem is that if he has TT he could have you completely crushed in the hand both ways as you know A8 doesn't play well for the low...

I hope this rambling makes sense...I think you are in a really tough spot here...

[mattb8818]

You can play this hand a number of different ways. The stack sizes play a role in how you play this hand. If he has a smallish stack then you definitely are playing this hand through. However, if you are both deep stacked it gets more interesting.

On the flop a pot bet is fine, but there can be some argument for betting half the pot. This keep the pot smaller which is good because you don't have a stellar hand.

On the turn you can either check behind or bet half the pot again. Now you won't have committed very much of your stack and can easily get away from the hand if he comes over the top.

I know this line doesn't protect your hand, but it is something to think about. I noticed a trend of people playing aggressively in spots that doesn't necessarily warrant it. I like to take a more passive approach with these good but not nuts type hands.

The situations that call for aggression are when you have a two way hand, not just an average high.

[davebreal]

[ QUOTE ]
Forget exact details of hand, but I'll try to recall as best as possible...

$1/2 PLO8 on FullTilt, 7 handed

Folded to me in MP. I raise to $7 with A358 with the ace suited.

LP calls, SB calls.

Flop is 5-5-T rainbow. SB checks, I bet pot, LP folds, SB calls.

Turn is a 3 giving me a full house and A8 low draw. SB checks, I bet pot again, he check raises. I was pot committed enough that I had to call even if I was drawing dead for high just on the chance that my low draw could've got me 1/2 the pot, so I called. He had TT and took the entire pot.


I realize that some wouldn't raise preflop, but other than that does anyone like any other play throughout the hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

absolutely nothing wrong with raising a hand like that sometimes.

this is definitely a read-dependent situation. i'd say in general a lot of the $1/$2 players are regulars, with many nut peddlers among them. typical line for most players with trips is to bet or check-raise on flop, typical line for a monster is to bait in the aggressor further (although some may attempt the deceptive "fastplay").

in my experience anytime you flop trips and there is a high ranking card on the board, you immediately should recognize the potential of drawing dead/thin to an overfull... then accordingly you need to assess stack size and playing ability of the involved opponent. if applicable you should often look for methods of not over-committing yourself but at the same time not playing too meekly. this often calls for medium sized leads in pot-limit, as opposed to betting full-pot. this falls into my "probe bet" category... filed away somewhere between "weak lead" and "massage bet"

not sure if this sounds too vague, but when i'm playing decently (rare in itself), this is my mentality in all forms of big bet poker.

*** i'm actually giving thought-provoking advice for once!

[Buzz]

Assani – Hero bets the pot after the flop. Fine.

But then when Villain calls, assuming Villain has at least trip fives for high, roughly six times out of fifteen Hero is slightly ahead and roughly five times out of fifteen Hero is permanently behind. I’ll try to explain.

If you assume your opponent at least held trip fives to continue after this flop, and not a hand with trip tens, then your opponent held one of the following:<ul type="square">5TTZ
5TYZ
5XYZ
TTYZ[/list]It’s very difficult to put your opponent on X, Y, or Z. Some hands are more likely to be played by others, but opponents differ somewhat in the starting hands they like to play, and some mix up their play. For 5XYZ, in particular, except for immediately rejecting trips, it’s very difficult to know what X, Y, and Z are. (And I’ve even seen some opponents play starting hands with three of a kind.) But I’m going to reject starting hands with trips for Villain.

At any rate,<ul type="square"> 5TTZ can be made 1*3*41 = 123 ways
5TYZ can be made 3*C(41,2) = 2460 ways
5XYZ can be made C(41,3) = 10660 ways, and then we take 51 away for trips, making 10609 ways.
TTYZ can be made 3*C(41,2) = 2460 ways[/list]making a grand total of 123+2460+10660+2460 = 15703 possible hands Villain could be holding. It’s not really that many, but we don’t know exactly what hands including a five (or TT) to exclude. (I’m open to suggestions as to how to reduce that number).

We estimate probabilities from the perspective of what we know, or are fairly sure of, and it’s hard to be fairly sure of much more than that. (I suppose I could go through the list of fifteen thousand possible hands to choose the hands that should be excluded, but that would take hours and my opinion would probably be different from Villain’s anyway).

Assuming Villain has at least trip fives, there are
123+2460+2460 = 5043 ways Hero is behind on the flop. And that leaves <ul type="square">5AYZ, 4*C(37,2) = 2664
5AAZ, 6*37 = 222, and
5XYZ, 10609-2664-222 = 6391
as possible hands for Villain[/list]
Thus, if Villain at least has a hand with a five, to make trip fives on the flop, then after this flop: <ul type="square">the number of ways Villain can be ahead of Hero for high is 5063 ways,
the number of ways Villain can be tied with Hero is 3996+222 = 4218 ways, and
the number of ways Villain can be behind Hero 6391 ways.[/list]Thus after the flop, when Villain calls hero’s pot-sized bet, the probability Hero (holding trip fives with an ace kicker) is ahead is only 6391/15703 = 0.407.

Then the turn is semi-sweet and semi-bitter for Hero. Hero makes a full house, but now has only his emergency low. Villain almost surely has either a better full house or a better low than Hero (and maybe both).

It looks to me like Hero is going to get his ears pinned back by betting this turn roughly one third of the time (5063/15703 = 0.322) when Villain has slow-played a flopped full house.

So that’s the math part of it, as I see it.
-----
It’s possible that Villain did not flop trip fives or better for high, but then why did Villain call Hero’s pot sized flop bet? A good low with a high pair, something like A2KK or A244? At any rate, most of the five-less hands I can think of putting Villain on have Hero beaten for low

I don’t know what works best under these conditions in a pot-limit game. I’ll leave that to the pot limit O-8 players. I suspect what works best is highly opponent dependent.

Buzz

[Assani Fisher]

I appriciate the thoughts so far and I'm going to go through them all in more detail later(I have to leave right now). But let me ask one question for discussion: Does the fact that he called a pot sized raise preflop not discount TT somewhat? Obviously this is read dependant, but assume that you know nothing about an opponent.

Also just for clarification: yes, he was rather shortstacked, as I definitely could've gotten away from his turn check/raise if he wasn't.

The more I think about it, the more I think I butchered the hand though, and I hate making mistakes in big pots....good players don't do that.

Oh and btw davebreal...I just started playing PLO8 again and havn't seen you the past week. You still playing regularly?

[davebreal]

[ QUOTE ]
Does the fact that he called a pot sized raise preflop not discount TT somewhat?

[/ QUOTE ]

not at all. poor plo8 players overvalue many pairs, i even see raggedy 99xx's being overplayed consistently (which is awful). another good example is people calling off all of their chips with weak KKxx's heads-up with clearly no odds.

[ QUOTE ]

Oh and btw davebreal...I just started playing PLO8 again and havn't seen you the past week. You still playing regularly?

[/ QUOTE ]

only when my girlfriend lets me... and i try to stick to $2/$4 and above when possible.

[Mendacious]

[ QUOTE ]
*** i'm actually giving thought-provoking advice for once!

[/ QUOTE ]

QFT

Seriously, sarcasm aside. Dave nailed it. Including the bit about the "deceptive fastplay" which only works when a player knows you well enough to smell a rat when you bet big or pot-raise on a paired board on a hand that has been potted pre-flop.

Just ask Megadisgruntled: http://www.pokerhand.org/?1339165

This is an easy hand for Mega to get away from, but my flop bet reeks of steal-- because he knows me, so a fast play actually works.

[Mendacious]

[ QUOTE ]


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Does the fact that he called a pot sized raise preflop not discount TT somewhat?


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not at all. poor plo8 players overvalue many pairs, i even see raggedy 99xx's being overplayed consistently (which is awful). another good example is people calling off all of their chips with weak KKxx's heads-up with clearly no odds.


[/ QUOTE ]

Truthfully, you can get screwed on both ends of the spectrum here, by "bad players" and by well-funded good aggressive players depending on stack size. Keep in mind, even amongst modestly aggressive players, a raise from middle position is going to represent a strong coordinated low hand, or AA. A good aggressive player with position can probably play pocket pairs and high cards in position profitably against a good number of middle position raises.

And even if doesn't show a profit on these hands, it is still part of an aggressive players game. I'm on the tight side, and I take flyers like this plenty of times if the circumstances are right, or I am looking to "make something happen".

[Buzz]

Hi Mendacious - There's a note that reads "edited by Buzz."

I only corrected one little spelling typo ("buy" to "by"), just to see if I could do it, and what would happen if I did.

I didn't mess with any of your content.

Hope that was O.K. I probably should have asked you first if it was all right to try it, but I didn't realize it would end up as it did.

Regards,

Buzz