25NL:QQ against station who checks nuts on river twice...180bb deep

[meccaNES]

Ok after taking me some shots and doing like [censored] i cashed out and am bankroll knitting my way up. Anyway...

Villain is 40.2/3/.54 I've seen him check the nuts TWICE on the river...

How deep deep do you have to be before valuebetting can become dangerous?

We're what ~ 180bb deep? Am i missing a [censored] ton of value here by not just shoving the river? It's like 22 into a 40$ pot. I think he calls with any jack. But, since he's been calling since the flop he may have rivered the 7 or a busted flush.

Exactly how deep can you go with one pair against a station who also checks the nuts on the river? This question is probably more important than the actual hand.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

BB ($26.20)
UTG ($44.85)
MP ($20.45)
CO ($31.45)
Hero ($42.40)
SB ($24.75)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls $0.25, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls $0.25, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $1.75</font>, SB calls $1.65, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG calls $1.50, CO calls $1.50.

Flop: ($7.25) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, UTG checks, CO checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $4.25</font>, SB folds, UTG calls $4.25, CO folds.

Turn: ($15.75) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $13.5</font>, UTG calls $13.50.

River: ($42.75) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero ? Instashoves or checks behind on the slim chance he isn't ahead...?

This seems kind of stupid since i just reread it...

[justhetip]

Excellent check behind

[Spechel EDD]

[ QUOTE ]
Excellent check behind

[/ QUOTE ]

you have got to be out of your mind

sure i may be a tad bitdrunk right now but checking here is soo incredibly weak and awful im just absolutely shocked.

you get value out of your hands by betting here. vs stations you always valuebet your big hands and dont bother bluffing them because theyre just stations.

flop you need to bet more. theres so many people in there that this board would be draw heavy for. $5.5-$7.25
turns fine
river i shove for the remaining stack

if he coolers you with a bigger overpair/set/quads then you just reload and continue trying to take this idiots money. youre as good as scared money if you decide to check there. dont be so results oriented.

[gimmetheloot]

6+ on the flop PLEASE.

easy easy easy easy easy easy easy.....
wait....

easy easy easy river shove.

[boycalledroy]

Losing lots of value to any Jack there. Also there is a busted flush and busted straight by the river. You can bet out and be called by a lower pp than a Jack here easily. You are basically burning value.

If he has called you all the way down with a 7 then you will take the money back no matter what.

[Fiksdal]

shovez. villain is a station and will call with any jack. not close. get those men out there.