20/180: Shortstack w/ small pair, facing raise from Hijack

[mayesie]

No Reads

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (9 handed) internettexasholdem.com


SB (t4230)
BB (t5686)
UTG (t5705)
UTG+1 (t2196)
MP1 (t1073)
MP2 (t2830)
MP3 (t2106)
Hero (t1470)
Button (t1707)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises to t450</font>, Hero ???

What's your line of thinking here?

1) Villain put in ~20% of his stack. Since he's short, he's probably looking for action with a strong hand. Also, I'm unlikely to have fold-equity, even if he's on a steal with a hand like A5s. Thus, I fold.

2) I'm not concerned about my fold-equity against the villain. I need chips, he could easily be on a steal, and 44 looks like a good hand to try to double-up with. I shove.

3) I'd be happy to gamble with the Hijack, but there are (3) other players to act behind me. Since this is a 20/180, there's a decent chance of someone else calling, making it a potential 3-way pot. I'll fold here, and "wait for a better spot".

4) Other

[MonkeyButler]

Considering that your M is 6.5, and your one of the short stacks, I would shove here. Although 44 is not the holding I would be looking to do this with, the opportunity has arisen. So if you shove, here's what it'll look like.

You shove for additional 1,020 chips. The SB or BB then has to call $1,470 cold in the face of a raise and reraise, now don't count them out, but a call is highly unlikely. When the action gets back to Villain, he'll be getting slightly better than 2-1 odds (he has to call 1,020 in a 2145 pot). Unless he's on a complete steal, he's going to call.

You're probably going to be in a coin flip, which I try to avoid, but are you going to see a better hand within the next orbit? If not, you're not going to have any fold-equity at all and you're going to be shoving with any 2.

That's just my 2 cents, I'm looking for feedback on my reply as well.

[freeucm]

Id wait for a better spot 1010+ aq+ here.

[DarrenX]

I'm more along the lines of 2. I know personally when I have a stack slightly bigger than what I would normally push, I'll put in my normal (3xish) raise with anything ready to fold to a raise. Of course, I wouldn't do it here with any two, simply because of your stack I'd be priced in to call. But I see a raise/fold here more frequently than I should.

Bottom line, I push.

[bambam16]

I see Darren's point here, and I could go either way. From a math perspective I think it's a fold - he'll be getting too good of odds to call here unless he's opening really wide. But I can also see Darren's point if villian is saying "I have enough to make one steal attempt and fold, then I get to push/fold mode", so in that regard I can see a push over the top.

One thing I think you have to consider is the stack size of the blinds, especially BB - if villian pays attention to their stacks, he realizes if BB comes over the top and villian calls and wins, BB still has a 30 BB stack - enough to work with for a little while. Also I don't think it's a shove just because you have a pair - if you're shoving here it's not because of your cards.

Given the situation with no reads, I fold and pick a better spot.

[jonnyd]

i find that you do get the occasional fold out of MP3, but we're not looking for a fold with this stack. this is a good hand vs the range of a normal LP open. this is a shove unless the guy is a super nit.

[RandomUser]

You still have some time before you need to make a final stand. When I am this low, I prefer to be the one opening the pot rather than calling.

You are, at best, a coin flip, and villain could easily have a pair higher than your 4s.

I fold and wait for a better opportunity.

[levAA]

this is a shove.

only if you think it's more than 60% likely he is holding an overpair it's -EV.
I would say he holds some high cards in 60%, an overpair in 30% and bluffs in 10%.
in this constellation you have an EV of about 600 chips and we have not added the FE you might have in addition.

so push it in