WSOP Main Event Bubble - Theoretical Situation

[djk123]

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66+ KT+A7+

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Wow, that is definitely looser than me. I'm probably calling 88+, KQ, A9s+, ATo+.

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???? The guy has a random hand.

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Well, it's really a risk aversion question too, you have to realize. I was saying what I would call with. What we SHOULD call with is just a math problem.

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oh oops

[stealthmunk]

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So one person left before we are all in the money, the entire table goes allin, fold AA in the BB?!!!?







Ok hopefully my poor joke hasn't scared off too many good posters. Its getting close to the WSOP ME bubble, and our table consists of weak tight nits who all want to cash, with the exception of the table chipleader and bully, who is a well-known European pro.

Blinds are 2k/4k/500 and European bully is playing really aggressive and running the table, we have played back at him once last orbit, when it is announced we are now playing Hand for Hand, with 10 people left to bust.

Stack-sizes range from 20k-100k for the nits, we have 150k and the European pro has around 450k. We are sitting on the right of the pro.

As soon as H4H is announced, the pro raises to 150k, we fold our random hand and he picks up the blinds and antes. Same for the next hand, and the next. The fourth time he does it UTG, and we notice he is doing it blind.

So that's the situation, 10 people left to bubble and a really tight nitty table which the European pro has decided to take advantage of. Its apparently that the pro is going to just make it 150k every hand, putting the whole table allin until the bubble bursts. This is probably fine at this table since everyone (except ourselves) is scared money trying to cash.

So knowing he has a random hand, knowing that overcalls if we call are going to be ridiculously tight (its very possible they fold everything except AA if we call the pro before they act), what range are you calling with preflop?

This situation occurred this year at the WSOP (except i wasn't at the table) and our vegas house was pretty split on how loose we are calling preflop.

Thoughts?

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66+ KT+A7+

for me.

p.s. it isn't theoretical as it happened this year LDO.

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This range doesnt make much sense since you are leaving out hands that have the same equity as 66 kt and a7

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I guesstimated a range that would give me at worst case 60% equity vs his range of any 2 cards.

[nath]

well keeping in mind that the WSOP ME cash bubble is actually very significant compared to most pay bubbles and i think you have to skew slightly tighter for that.

but in such a big tournament i don't know what that line is

A5s+ A8o+ KJo+ K9s+ QJs 55+ is like all hands 59.9%+ vs a random hand

[Stumpy]

Cliff Notes:
56% equity is break even.
60% equity is +$5,336 on average.
If you don't think you'll be able to steal blinds much after doubling, waiting for a better hand is equally good with a much lower risk of ruin.

This is long, but maybe interesting. I think it suggests you can over-do the "I'm short, need to double, oh, a coinflip" mentality near the bubble.


Calling Profit
I looked up #entrants, prize pool and payouts for ME 2007. ITM=$20,320.
After the bubble each chip is worth 37.09 cents.
There is 10.5k in blinds/antes. Your +cEV has to balance out the times you bust and miss the ITM payout.

w = Your hand's equity against a random hand.
Profit = [160,500*(w) - 150,000*(1-w)]*($0.3709) - $20,320*(1-w)

The break-even point is 56% equity. 60% is worth $5,336 on average.

Waiting for a Better Hand
I think it's safe to say he stops doing this if you double up once, so you do have to consider how long the bubble lasts, and what chances might come up later. Say you got one of those exactly 60% hands 5 hands from the SB. If you folded, you could pick the best of the next 5 hands without much penalty.

You'd get {88+, ATs+,KQs+,AKo} in the next 5 hands 25% of the time.

When you did, you'd be 72% to win.
Profit = $21,773.
Avg Profit = Profit * (Chance you get a hand) = $5434.

Risk of Ruin
Take the 60%: 40%
Wait for Better Hand: 7% (You get the better hand 25% of the time, and lose when you do 27%)

Expand your 'Waiting' Range
As you folded each hand your range should expand from the 88+ range back to the original 60% range when you were in the SB, or probably more accurately as you sensed the bubble was getting closer and closer to bursting.

Stealing Equity after Doubling
10,500 chips are in preflop, which are worth $3,900.
That's obviously not trivial and you have to assume he stops blind raising once you double.

Estimate how many times you think you could steal the blinds in the remaining bubble hands if you won.
$3,900 * (Number of Times) * (0.9 -- some risk of a resteal) * (0.6 -- %time you didn't bust trying to double).

If you thought you could steal once in the next 5 hands that'd be worth $2100 extra on average.
Waiting still wins you some blind stealing equity when you get that better hand, but that's only worth about N*$250... (You only double 25% of the time, plus you're at least 1 hand later.)

Break-Even Equity versus Stack Size
As your stack gets smaller you need much more equity to make trying to double profitable.
The ITM prize is worth 55k in chips post-bubble:
Your Stack: Break-even Equity
40k: 65%
20k: 72% (which is 88+, ATs+,KQs+,AKo)

[Exitonly]

very nice post stumpy

[Todd Terry]

What European pro was doing this?

[Cardsofwood]

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Cliff Notes:

Waiting for a Better Hand
I think it's safe to say he stops doing this if you double up once, so you do have to consider how long the bubble lasts, and what chances might come up later. Say you got one of those exactly 60% hands 5 hands from the SB. If you folded, you could pick the best of the next 5 hands without much penalty.

You'd get {88+, ATs+,KQs+,AKo} in the next 5 hands 25% of the time.

When you did, you'd be 72% to win.
Profit = $21,773.
Avg Profit = Profit * (Chance you get a hand) = $5434.



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what about if one of the nits on our table call before we get a hand we are comfortable playing? say the 100k stack doubles, I highly doubt he is still pushing every hand when his stack isnt so far ahead?

am I incorrect in assuming this?

[gobboboy]

Haven't read any other posts, I call with 66+, A9+ and KT+.

[Stumpy]

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What European pro was doing this?

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Lee Watkinson was doing it. Maybe another guy too?

The story on Lee was he was betting blind enough to cover the rest of the table before cards were even dealt. He did it for every hand on the bubble.

I think in Lee's case there were not stacks quite as big as this at the table, but I could be wrong. The general read is the rest of the table is too scared to call with basically anything, which I think is pretty likely. I'd need some serious equity to risk the $20k and being able to say I made the money. I think most casual players feel the same way. Plus they wouldn't realize how much equity they're turning down by folding to the money.

[djk123]

I agree very nice post stumpy.

So, given your math and assuming we steal 1 out of the next 5 hands, we could call with hands that have at least 58.5226% equity against a random hand and have the same $EV as waiting for 88+,ATs+,KQs, AKo, since 3334 + 2100=5434.

Our calling hands would be: 55+, A4s+, A7o+, K9s+, KTo+, QTs+

But I strongly feel that stealing 1 out of the next 5 hands is the bare minimum. Given the table dynamics, we could easily steal 3 out of the next 5 hands.

According to your equation, stealing 3 out of the next 5 hands would be worth $6318. So, if we expect to steal 3 out of 5, we could even call the allin at a very slight loss and still have the same $EV as waiting for 88+,ATs+,KQs,AKo.

So basically I'm saying that I think we can call looser than people are saying.