#1
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Variance - A bad run or just bad play?
Hi all,
Over the past 4 weeks I have been multitabling(6-8 tables) at 9 seat 50NL on Stars. During the first 3 weeks my bankroll increased by $2200. During this time, of course I made several donk plays at times and lost full buy ins and of course experienced many bad beats, as we all do. However the past week has been disasterous and I have lost $900 from my BR.(See graph below) I'm a tight player, 14/7/3.5 over 91,000 hands and although I aknowledge that at higher limits I am no doubt too predictable, but it worked at the 25 and 50NL well. I play the majority of my hands in position. Whats been happening this week is when I've got a good hand or made a good hand on the flop, I've been betting 2/3rds of the pot (as usual) to prevent players from having the odds to call, so often a player has done so and has either made a possible straight, flush or caught an overcard. Then as I continue with either another bet or take it steadier and more cautiously, I'm either getting floated off my hand and often have to fold or if I get a cheap showdown, beaten by a better hand. This has happened to me time and time again over the past week. If I get AA or KK, if I do a standard raise in mid or late position so mant times, the hand is folded around to me. If I limp with them in EP(with a view to re raising) often its called around and then often, I'm again either losing the hand with top pair or putting the odds against a draw, getting called and then having to fold or losing on the showdown. The only point I would make is that I haven't lost to so many sets, maybe because I have been unknowingly more passive on the flop and thereafter and being taken of my hand??? I'm not aware of any major changes to my game, its pretty, dare I sat it, ABC, usually betting 2/3 on the flop, 1/2- 2/3 on the turn and 1/2 the pot on the river if I get there. I use PT and try to use it alot when making decisions against other players. PT has not revealed that my stats have changed over the past week. The only think I would say is that I have played alot more during the day (UK time) and no so much in the early mornings and late into the night. Maybe I have been coming up against the better European players. I've had so many suckouts I'm begining to question whether the first 3 weeks was just luck, or this week has been just bad luck, the integrity of the site since I recently attained platinum star or wondering whether to cash out and do something else with my time. I'm sure many of us have been in the position I find myself in right now. I would just like some advice and help with this, if possible so I can get through it and improve as a player. Cheers BF72 |
#2
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Re: Variance - A bad run or just bad play?
session detail over how many hands? 90,000+?
post stats by position ... may show something not readily apparent, but variance may explain |
#3
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Re: Variance - A bad run or just bad play?
OK Mingdu, Any help from anyone would be much appreciated.
Sorry about the poor quality |
#4
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Re: Variance - A bad run or just bad play?
I just wanted to say that when you post screen shots you get better pics and smaller sizes if you save them as .gif or .png instead of trying to make a very small jpg.
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#5
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Re: Variance - A bad run or just bad play?
Here is my position stats during the worst part of my bad run. Advice and useful comments wuld be much appreciated please.
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