50NL AK TP though spot

[wulfpacker21]

Villian has just sat down at the table but i had played some 25nl with him like a month ago and his stats were 18/11/1... obviously i am going to call here atleast should i re pop him ?

Full Tilt Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (8 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

MP2 ($59.90)
CO ($50)
Hero ($60.80)
SB ($50.40)
BB ($72.35)
UTG ($22.65)
UTG+1 ($20.65)
MP1 ($12.30)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $0.50.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls $0.50, MP2 calls $0.50, <font color="#CC3333">CO (poster) raises to $2.75</font>, Hero calls $2.75, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 folds, MP2 folds.

Flop: ($7.25) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">CO bets $7.25</font>, Hero ?

[Grunch]

Don't call preflop -- re-raise. Getting a raised multiway pot in a crappy relative position would be crappy.

On the flop, raise. The board texture should be telling you to go fast. There are lots of bad cards that could come that would make you think "well crap what now?"

[wulfpacker21]

[ QUOTE ]
multiway pot in a crappy relative position would be crappy.



[/ QUOTE ]

im on the button for position

[Grunch]

You have absolute position, but if the two limpers also come you have bad relative position. It will be the PFR, then you, then 2 more peope behind. Yuck.

[wiggs73]

I would re-raise preflop to $8-9.

I actually think the flop is interesting and part of me wants to raise for value / protection while another part of me wants to call for pot control because this guys is a nit both pre and post flop, and when nits raise pre then bet pot-size on this board, I'm not feeling fantastic about TPTK to be honest. Hopefully I'll form a more solid opinion later. Interesting hand though.

edit - I guess 18/11 isn't that nitty for full ring, I'm used to looking at 6max hands.

[+EV]

standard reraise at this level pf is like $6. I don't see any reason to raise more.

+EV

[Peter Harris]

reraise to 7 Pf

as played I'd raise flop and likely fold to a shove unless I was sure villain wasn't exactly AK.

[wiggs73]

Disclaimer: I got pretty f'n confused doing this, plus my ranges are just opinion to begin with, so anyone feel free to argue my ranges / correct math mistakes.



This guy opens preflop 11% of the time. He's in the cutoff, so it's probably a bit higher from there, let's say 15%.

That looks roughly like,
77+,A7s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KTo+,QJo

He bets pot-size on the flop. I'll assume he's a standard TAG player, even though his postflop aggression factor is a little low. So let's just say he c-bets most flops since he raised preflop.

I say most because I don't think he bets 88, 99, TT. And unless they're diamonds, I don't think he bets A8s, A9s.

I'm still being pretty liberal with what range he c-bets, but he'll at least have a piece of the board with all the hands that are left and thusly, some (perceived at least) outs.

Against a range of,
JJ+,77,ATs+,A7s,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KTo+,QJo

you have 67.9% equity. This won't really matter, but it's there fwiw.

Based on the texture of the board, I think that if you raise the flop to say $30, you're either getting in or he's folding the vast majority of the time. I just don't see him calling a raise of that size to peel a card, and I'd never recommend you put half your stack in and fold to a shove. So let's figure out what part of his range folds to a raise and what part of it gets in with you.

I think the following hands fold to a strong flop raise:
A7s, KTo, KTs, K9s, ATo, QJo, AJo, AQo, KQo (most of the time at least), KQs (again, most of the time I think), QQ.

Additionally, I think unless they are diamonds, the following hands fold as well:
AJs, ATs, QJs, QTs, JTs

Against this range,
KK+,JJ,77,AKs,AdJd,AdTd,Ad9d,Ad8d,KJs,QdJd,QdTd,Jd Td,AKo,KJo

you have 27.6% equity.


Now we have to figure out hand combinations.
A7s - 2
KTo - 6
KTs - 2
K9s - 2
ATo - 12
QJo - 9
AJo - 7
AQo - 9
KQo - 6
KQs - 2
QQ - 6
AJs not diamonds - 1
ATs not diamonds - 2
QJs not diamonds - 2
QTs not diamonds - 3
JTs not diamonds - 2

KK - 1
AA - 3
JJ - 3
77 - 3
AKs - 2
AdJd - 1
AdTd - 1
Ad9d - 1
Ad8d - 1
KJs - 1
QdJd - 1
QdTd - 1
JdTd - 1
AKo - 5
KJo - 5

That's 73 hand combos he folds to a raise and 29 he gets in with you with (102 total).

Finally, the pot is $14.50 when it's hero's turn to act on othe flop. And effective stacks are $50.

So putting it all together...

71.6% of the time, hero wins a $14.50 pot.

28.4% of the time, hero gets all-in in a $101.75 pot with 27.6% pot equity, so...

I'm getting the EV of a flop raise to be:

(.716 * $14.50) + [.284 * (.276 * $101.75)] + [2.84 * (.724 * -101.75)] =
$10.38 + (.284 * $28.08) + (.284 * -$73.68) =
$10.38 + $7.97 - $20.93 = -$2.58


But we have a lot of equity against his overall range after just having bet the flop, so I don't think we can fold either. So I think calling / re-evaluating the turn is the way to go.

[hasanthadon]

nice analysis. that was very enlightening for a newbie like me lol. im pretty sure ive read analysis like this in HoH but your explanation was very clear. but im just wondernig if anyone actually makes EV calculations at the table

[Waingro]

Wiggs,

just a quick note on your ranges for villain pf, if we for arguments sake say that villain raises with the top 15% of hands that plays well for 100 bb his range probably doesn´t look like that. Get rid of most of the off suit broadway junk and add small pairs and scs. I am 99% sure he raises 22+. So his hand probably contains more speculative hands for such a tight raising range, making a 3bet pf even more mandatory.