$50nltrn flopped flush, turn pairs board

[how_can_losing?]

Hey 2p2,

My first post, after a long time lurking. I just moved up to the $50s in July and am doing ok, not great. I'm hoping to improve my ROI and winrate by posting my own HH and thinking through others' posts too.

This hand seems simple but I have a nitpicky question about my turn play. If the decision seems trivial, feel free to say so.

Reads on villain: this is the 2nd match out of 3. He won the first, mostly hitting a lot of hands and picking off all my bluffs with top pair or better. He ran at 56/15.7/1.58 over 255 hands, but the AF seems low relative to his river aggression (2.08; he bet 37% of all rivers, and I have picked off some of his psb bluffs on riv).

Onto the hand:

Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (2 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Villain(t1920)
Hero (t1080)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
Button calls t15, Hero checks.

Flop: (t60) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Hero bets t55, Villain calls t55.

Turn: (t170) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Hero checks, Button bets t170, Hero raises all-in t995, Button calls.

Final pot: t2160

When he calls my flop bet I think he could have a pair, a gutshot, or a FD (or some combo). When he bets turn I think he probably has trips or at least a FD.

If he has trips, and riv is blank, he will probably VB push, even with the 3flush. If riv is a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], he will probably C/F unless he has a heart higher than 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] in which case he just might call. If he has trips, and riv double pairs, obv I am toast.

With an opponent like this, I'm thinking I might wait until the river to push. My image is bad because of a bunch of bluffs from the first match, so he will call with just trips unless a fourth heart falls, and I will lose the tourn if the board double pairs.

OTOH, if river is a blank and he VBs and I push, he MIGHT fold trips.

What do you think?

I had to convert most of the HH manually so I hope I didn't leave anything out. Any comments on any streets (bet sizes, leading vs. cr, etc.) are welcome. Thanks!

[HokieGreg]

callcallcallcallcallclclalclclalclclaccall

just lead the turn no reason to get tricky here. if your image is bad then use that to your advantage and just bet bet bet.

you are still ahead of a lot of stuff that might call your push here

dont be results oriented

[how_can_losing?]

[ QUOTE ]
callcallcallcallcallclclalclclalclclaccall

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Do you mean I should shove as I did, or just call turn? I guess you mean the best line would be b/3b AI (or bet turn, shove river).

[HokieGreg]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
callcallcallcallcallclclalclclalclclaccall

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you mean I should shove as I did, or just call turn? I guess you mean the best line would be b/3b AI (or bet turn, shove river).

[/ QUOTE ]

the best line on this hand against most villains is just to lead every street. there are a lot of hands that will pay you off.

i think your lead flop/check raise turn ai line advertises the strength of your hand more than just leading every street.