$33: Fold KK on bubble vs. big stack pusher?

[iceblink]

***** Pacific Hand History
$150/$300 Blinds No Limit Hold'em - *** 08 03 02:19:56 2007
Tournament #16490640 $30 + $3

Seat 7 is the button
Total number of players : 4

Seat 3: SB ( $1730 )
Seat 5: BB (Hero) ( $4109 )
Seat 6: UTG ( $1805 )
Seat 7: Button (Villain) ( $7356 )

SB posts [$150].
Hero posts big blind [$300].

** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ Kd Ks ]
UTG folds.
Villain raises [$7356].
SB folds.
Hero calls [$3809].
** Dealing Flop ** [ Js, 9c, 10c ]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 3h ]
** Dealing River ** [ 2h ]

** Summary **
Hero shows [ Kd Ks ].
Villain shows [ 9d 9s ].

Villain wins the hand with a set of 9's.

Villain had been open pushing all pairs, A8+, and KJ+ with a big stack, since we were five or six-handed. His push range may extend to include any ace. He min-raises a few other hands, but otherwise folds, even when it's passed around to him in the SB.

The two short stacks, SB and UTG, have been playing tight, only making occasional pushes.

So, could it be +EV for Hero to fold KK in this spot? If not, then how about if one of the short stacks had only 2xBB left, instead of 6xBB?

I know there are tools, such as SNG Wizard, for analyzing these situations, but I don't play SNG's often enough to justify purchasing them (I mainly play MTT's).

Thanks in advance for any feedback.

[ymu]

You don't have to purchase them.

Just find an ICM calculator online and work out your $ equity for a fold and your $ equity for a call if you win. Multiply the latter by your pot equity against his range - you need to estimate whether this is ATC (100%), or 60% or whatever and poker stove it.

If your $ equity for a win multiplied by the probability that you win is higher than your $ equity for a fold, then you should call.

Without running it, this looks like a clear call to me. The shorties aren't short enough and if you double here it'll be you pushing ATC and stealing all the blinds on the bubble.

[kuey]

That's actually a pretty tight range you put on him considering the stack sizes. If you really think he's shoving that tight, I think this might be very close. If I haven't seen him shove with anything trashy (a pair or a mid ace), I think I might be tempted to fold here. However, against someone who is shoving very wide here (as they should be), I think I might call.

[pineapple888]

NO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Don't fold. Shorties aren't near short enough.

[AMT]

[ QUOTE ]
NO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Don't fold. Shorties aren't near short enough.

[/ QUOTE ]

[IcemanDan]

If the villain was pushing 12.2% of his hands (44+, A9+, A7s+, KJs+), then this is a fold according to SNG Wiz. As an aside, calling is an insanely small mistake. About a .02 difference in equity.

It turns into a call if the villain is pushing about 24% (22+, A2+, KT+, K9s+, QJs).

[IcemanDan]

If UTG only had 2 BB left, you couldn't call with KK until you're sure button is pushing 38.2% (22+, A2+, K3+, K2s+, Q9+, Q6s+, JT, J9s+, T9s)