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#21
08-02-2007, 09:16 PM
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Re: You bet WHAT?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Looks like hes trying to stack you here with 5x or 22. If you move in and youre right, you win 300. If youre wrong, youre crushed and you lose 900. I'd fold. [/ QUOTE ] well, this analysis is flawed because we have 2 outs if behind. 10% equity in a 2k pot is 200, which means we are technically losing 700 when called. also, this is a clear value push, bc these kind of opponents can EASILY bet call 2x, 66, or hell, A4. [/ QUOTE ] you really think he'll bet 2.5x the pot here with 2x/a4 etc? [/ QUOTE ] some % of the time, why not? Ive given up trying to rationalize fish actions, they dont play well. you have an overpair, raised pot, I would be semi salivating. sure, if your history leads you to feel a fold is more prudent, no one is going to belittle that. however, A + B = C, and here A is a fish, B is an overpair, so C means you should get the money in asap. 
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#22
08-02-2007, 09:20 PM
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Re: You bet WHAT?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Looks like hes trying to stack you here with 5x or 22. If you move in and youre right, you win 300. If youre wrong, youre crushed and you lose 900. I'd fold. [/ QUOTE ] well, this analysis is flawed because we have 2 outs if behind. 10% equity in a 2k pot is 200, which means we are technically losing 700 when called. also, this is a clear value push, bc these kind of opponents can EASILY bet call 2x, 66, or hell, A4. [/ QUOTE ] you really think he'll bet 2.5x the pot here with 2x/a4 etc? [/ QUOTE ] yes, for the same reason that every time an idiot openshoves for 2x pot on the flop he has TPNK or middle pair. i had AQ on AQQ yesterday and checked and a guy bet 3x pot with K2
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