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#61
08-02-2007, 02:28 PM
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Re: Beat: Live next to 35W bridge collapse
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Are you too simple to understand analogies or just to lazy and dishonest to bother trying? [/ QUOTE ] Do you understand what an analogy is sir? I fail to see the relation between (a) a bridge failing and killing people and (b) variance. The former is caused by engineer and other human error. The latter is a function of statistical distributions. You're right, I'm too lazy to try to find a connection between a measure of statistical dispersion and the unnecessary deaths of many people. And I'm too dishonest to accept that there's no connection. And I'm too stupid to realize this. [/ QUOTE ] The point he's making is that if you built 1 000 000 'perfect' bridges there will always be that anomaly of unforeseen circumstances that will cause 1 to fail. You might disagree with this, but that is the point he is making, and that is how it is analogous to statistical variance in poker. [/ QUOTE ] No, it's not. Structures like this are severely over-engineered and are designed and built in such a way that something like this cannot happen. If something like this happens then there are two possibilities: 1. design failure (very improbable), 2. build & service failure (probable, corruption, state-owned, etc), 3. insane situation (meteor strike, etc). [/ QUOTE ] Someone agrees with me !! [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 
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#62
08-02-2007, 02:31 PM
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Re: Beat: Live next to 35W bridge collapse
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Are you too simple to understand analogies or just to lazy and dishonest to bother trying? [/ QUOTE ] Do you understand what an analogy is sir? I fail to see the relation between (a) a bridge failing and killing people and (b) variance. The former is caused by engineer and other human error. The latter is a function of statistical distributions. You're right, I'm too lazy to try to find a connection between a measure of statistical dispersion and the unnecessary deaths of many people. And I'm too dishonest to accept that there's no connection. And I'm too stupid to realize this. [/ QUOTE ] The point he's making is that if you built 1 000 000 'perfect' bridges there will always be that anomaly of unforeseen circumstances that will cause 1 to fail. You might disagree with this, but that is the point he is making, and that is how it is analogous to statistical variance in poker. [/ QUOTE ] No, it's not. Structures like this are severely over-engineered and are designed and built in such a way that something like this cannot happen. If something like this happens then there are two possibilities: 1. design failure (very improbable), 2. build & service failure (probable, corruption, state-owned, etc), 3. insane situation (meteor strike, etc). [/ QUOTE ] Don't say it to me, i'm just the translator.
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#63
08-02-2007, 02:36 PM
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Re: Beat: Live next to 35W bridge collapse
[ QUOTE ]
People died due to engineer error. That's bad. [/ QUOTE ] If it was an engineering error it would have collapsed much sooner (google Tacoma narrows bridge). These things usually happen because the bridge was not maintained the way it should have been, most likely due to idiot management cutting inspections or repair budgets. The other factor may have been that the bridge was designed for less traffic load (not as many people back then), trucks are carrying heavier loads and there are more of them, etc., etc.. My money is on lack of adequate inspection, which may have required things like X-raying welds If you don't change the oil in your car, the lifetime of your engine is cut dramatically, but nobody would say that's an engineering mistake.
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#64
08-02-2007, 02:38 PM
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Re: Beat: Live next to 35W bridge collapse
[ QUOTE ]
If you don't change the oil in your car, the lifetime of your engine is cut dramatically, but nobody would say that's an engineering mistake. [/ QUOTE ] But nobody would call it variance. It's still your fault because you're an idiot. Whoever's job it was to maintain that bridge, that guy is (hopefully) an engineer. So I still call it an engineering issue. Maintenance is part of engineering.
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#65
08-02-2007, 02:55 PM
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Re: Beat: Live next to 35W bridge collapse
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] If you don't change the oil in your car, the lifetime of your engine is cut dramatically, but nobody would say that's an engineering mistake. [/ QUOTE ] But nobody would call it variance. It's still your fault because you're an idiot. Whoever's job it was to maintain that bridge, that guy is (hopefully) an engineer. So I still call it an engineering issue. Maintenance is part of engineering. [/ QUOTE ] If you say this, then that is like comparing a mechanic to an engineer. A mechanic does his best to keep your car running at a cost, however, he is not a car god and can't have an effect on some of the conditions that the car may go through, so the mechanic can only prepare it to try and make it last longer in given conditions. An engineer team also can't do daily checks on every bridge in America to see if the nuts and bolts are loose in every spot, that would be rediculous. Perhaps too much tension was put on the bridge at one of it's weaker portions, causing more pressure to be put on another portion of the bridge, almost like a chain reaction, not due to human error IMO.
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#66
08-02-2007, 03:11 PM
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Re: Beat: Live next to 35W bridge collapse
Just throwing this out there because no one else has yet (or knows about it). The bridge has been under heavy construction (resurfacing 4 lanes at a time - 2 on each side) for the past 6 weeks or so, which includes a lot of jackhammering and such. This also condenses traffic much more (I fight through it every morning as I live only a few blocks away). The conditions were far from normal. I'm just lucky I went to my friends after work because it happened at almost the exact time I normally get in the area on 35W. Kinda creepy.
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#67
08-02-2007, 03:18 PM
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Re: Beat: Live next to 35W bridge collapse
Can't we all just stop arguing and agree that this is obviously George W. Bush's fault?
Seriously, though, the guys arguing on both sides of this are right to a degree. BTW, I'm a structural engineer (4 1/2 years), but I've never designed a bridge. But the reality is the building codes and the procedures by which we design structural members and connections call for A LOT of extra strength in the members relative to their theoretical strengths. Somebody screwed up here, most likely. It's very, very doubtful that it was the original bridge designer. Most likely something wasn't maintained properly. That said, the only foolproof system would be something impractical, either in terms of cost or inconvenience for the users. Also, I don't think we can rule out a terrorist-type thing here yet. If somebody got under there and removed enough bolts or rivets from a few key steel connections, it would only be a matter of time before the thing went down. Edit: fixed a typo.
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#68
08-02-2007, 03:51 PM
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Re: Beat: Live next to 35W bridge collapse
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ]  [/ QUOTE ] Is this the new bridge that bypasses the Hoover Dam? It is an pretty cool looking bridge. [/ QUOTE ] I don't know where this bridge is but it is certainly not by Hoover Dam since Hoover Dam is a short drive from Las Vegas and both are in the middle of a most god awful desert (not that I don't love Vegas, cause I DO). See this picture has green foliage in it. [/ QUOTE ] It also has TERRORISTS! I think everyone who lives by green foliage is a terrorist.
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#70
08-02-2007, 04:08 PM
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Re: Beat: Live next to 35W bridge collapse
[ QUOTE ]
beat: i do too. 6 blocks away. Refuse to go down there and look at it. Just seems too eerie. [/ QUOTE ] ARE YOU [censored] SERIOUS? YOU HAVE TO GO LOOK. such a fine desaster you might not see again!
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