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#1
08-02-2007, 12:40 PM
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BB Fun with 43s: Brilliant or FPS river decision?
Regular loose 15 at the Oaks - avg of 5 or 6 players to a flop. Villain in this hand is a lady who clearly hasn't played a whole lot of poker, something like a 35/5/1.0.
PF: Lady raises UTG (this is a big hand... JJ+ and AQ+), 3 cold callers, SB calls, I call in the BB with 43s. Flop: 652r. check, I check, she checks (doh!), and checked around. Turn: A, completing rainbow. SB checks, I check, lady bets, all fold back to me and I raise, she calls. River: A. I check. 
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#3
08-02-2007, 12:50 PM
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Re: BB Fun with 43s: Brilliant or FPS river decision?
b/3b/f > b/c > c/r. Seriously, a player with 1/2 a brain should realize that if you were ahead of her on the turn (either with a boat or a str8), you'd still be ahead of her on the river (with her likely AK/AQ/AJ). She should show up with a boat/quads <1% of the time since she didn't re-pop you on the turn. Her AF is 1.0, you're OOP on the river, and virtually crushing her range...this is an auto-bet. She is now more likely to call with KK (but never bet it) since the A paired.
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#5
08-02-2007, 01:02 PM
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Re: BB Fun with 43s: Brilliant or FPS river decision?
[ QUOTE ]
b/3b/f > b/c > c/r. Seriously, a player with 1/2 a brain should realize that if you were ahead of her on the turn (either with a boat or a str8), you'd still be ahead of her on the river (with her likely AK/AQ/AJ). She should show up with a boat/quads <1% of the time since she didn't re-pop you on the turn. Her AF is 1.0, you're OOP on the river, and virtually crushing her range...this is an auto-bet. She is now more likely to call with KK (but never bet it) since the A paired. [/ QUOTE ] Let me start by saying that there is no way she is even thinking about my hand. That said... 1. I hate to lead the flop with this. I would with A6s or 77 or something that is vulnerable, but it seems like a perfect opportunity to c/r the field on the flop. 2. You don't think she'd bet KK on the flop???? Wow. She's definitely more aggressive than that. AF of 1.0 but playing 35% of her hands. 3. On the flop I've read her as having a big ace. If the turn doesn't come A, I bet. And if the river doesn't improve her hand in my mind, I bet again. Remember that she's thinking: "I have 3 aces with a good kicker, I bet." Not "Hm. This guy c/r'd me on the turn. He may have gotten counterfeited or he's got me totally crushed."
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#7
08-02-2007, 01:18 PM
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Re: BB Fun with 43s: Brilliant or FPS river decision?
Why C/R when you can 3-bet?
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#8
08-02-2007, 01:26 PM
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Re: BB Fun with 43s: Brilliant or FPS river decision?
[ QUOTE ]
Why C/R when you can 3-bet? [/ QUOTE ] Thank you thank you thank you. This is really what my question boils down to: if I lead the river, does she raise so that I can 3-bet? I decided the answer was no at the time, and I also decided that she would call the c/r.
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#9
08-02-2007, 01:32 PM
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Re: BB Fun with 43s: Brilliant or FPS river decision?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] b/3b/f > b/c > c/r. Seriously, a player with 1/2 a brain should realize that if you were ahead of her on the turn (either with a boat or a str8), you'd still be ahead of her on the river (with her likely AK/AQ/AJ). She should show up with a boat/quads <1% of the time since she didn't re-pop you on the turn. Her AF is 1.0, you're OOP on the river, and virtually crushing her range...this is an auto-bet. She is now more likely to call with KK (but never bet it) since the A paired. [/ QUOTE ] Let me start by saying that there is no way she is even thinking about my hand. That said... 1. I hate to lead the flop with this. I would with A6s or 77 or something that is vulnerable, but it seems like a perfect opportunity to c/r the field on the flop. 2. You don't think she'd bet KK on the flop???? Wow. She's definitely more aggressive than that. AF of 1.0 but playing 35% of her hands. 3. On the flop I've read her as having a big ace. If the turn doesn't come A, I bet. And if the river doesn't improve her hand in my mind, I bet again. Remember that she's thinking: "I have 3 aces with a good kicker, I bet." Not "Hm. This guy c/r'd me on the turn. He may have gotten counterfeited or he's got me totally crushed." [/ QUOTE ] I was exclusively talking about the river. If she's not thinking about your hand at all, then I like b/3b/f even more. I retract my statement about KK...but I stick by everything else I said. Flop check is fine...I never suggested otherwise.
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#10
08-02-2007, 01:44 PM
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Re: BB Fun with 43s: Brilliant or FPS river decision?
I like the flop, I would lead the turn and hope she raises you then. If you had gotten a three bet in on the turn then I think the river check raise is a better play. As you played I think you lead and hope to get three bets in.
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