#1
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2/4 - Interesting QQ Preflop
CO is Dazarath, a 17/15 TAG who I haven't played very often against. Has played pretty straight forward and has folded to single button 3-bet earlier in the session.
SB is Reynolds XO and is 27/21. He's been especially LAG preflop and the overall table conditions are really aggressive. I decide to cold call preflop for deception vs. CO and to take advantage of a potential SB squeeze. PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums) SB ($401.25) BB ($780) UTG ($406) MP ($768.10) CO ($398) Hero ($557.40) Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $14</font>, Hero calls $14, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to $66</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $160</font>, Hero... CO seems aware enough to know SB could be 3-betting with a pretty wide range preflop, but I'm confident he's not tricky enough to be making a pure 4-bet bluff. |
#2
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Re: 2/4 - Interesting QQ Preflop
puke fold I think, wow aweful spot, just that w/ odds and our wierd line, I think CO is comitted w/ AK, and the rest of his range is KK AA or the other QQ.
Maybe like 2% of the time he has JJ? Arbitrary number, just seems so rare, even with aggro SB, very interested to know results if there was a showdown |
#3
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Re: 2/4 - Interesting QQ Preflop
Quick equity calculation for CO's 4-betting range. FWIW I think he's aggro enough to 4-bet JJ a decent amount of the time.
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt 59,930,640 games 0.005 secs 11,986,128,000 games/sec Board: Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 47.366% 45.79% 01.58% 27440794 945878.00 { QhQs } Hand 1: 52.634% 51.06% 01.58% 30598090 945878.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo } --- Basically I'm a coinflip with CO vs. this range, but is the added equity in the pot enough to make up for the times SB actually has a hand too and overcalls? |
#4
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Re: 2/4 - Interesting QQ Preflop
What makes you think he won't 4bet AA or particularly KK in this spot? Especially considering the aggressive nature of the game.
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#5
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Re: 2/4 - Interesting QQ Preflop
[ QUOTE ]
CO seems aware enough to know SB could be 3-betting with a pretty wide range preflop, but I'm confident he's not tricky enough to be making a pure 4-bet bluff. [/ QUOTE ] Ouch, I get about as much respect as... I don't know. Just name some crappy player. POKERSTARS GAME #11265483126: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($2/$4) - 2007/08/02 - 03:13:30 (ET) Table 'Lancelot' 6-max Seat #6 is the button Seat 1: Reynolds XO ($401.25 in chips) Seat 2: Paulus_rus ($780 in chips) Seat 3: PokerGuru ($406 in chips) Seat 4: Hpboy10 ($768.10 in chips) Seat 5: Dazarath ($398 in chips) Seat 6: JrJordan ($557.40 in chips) Reynolds XO: posts small blind $2 Paulus_rus: posts big blind $4 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to Dazarath [7d Ad] PokerGuru: folds Hpboy10: folds Dazarath: raises $10 to $14 JrJordan: calls $14 Reynolds XO: raises $50 to $64 Paulus_rus: folds Dazarath: raises $96 to $160 JrJordan: folds Reynolds XO: folds Dazarath collected $146 from pot Dazarath: doesn't show hand *** SUMMARY *** Total pot $146 | Rake $0 Seat 1: Reynolds XO (small blind) folded before Flop Seat 2: Paulus_rus (big blind) folded before Flop Seat 3: PokerGuru folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 4: Hpboy10 folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 5: Dazarath collected ($146) Seat 6: JrJordan (button) folded before Flop |
#6
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Re: 2/4 - Interesting QQ Preflop
Son of a bitch HYACHCHCHCHCHCHA
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#7
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Re: 2/4 - Interesting QQ Preflop
[ QUOTE ]
Son of a bitch HYACHCHCHCHCHCHA [/ QUOTE ] maybe a faked HH to level you? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] |
#8
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Re: 2/4 - Interesting QQ Preflop
The HH is not fake.
To be honest, against most players, I'd shove the QQ and feel really good about it. If your read on me was that I wouldn't 4-bet bluff, then a fold seems pretty good, depending on how strong you think my range is. Of course, this is all obvious, so I don't know why I'm saying it. On the other hand, your read that I knew the SB was 3-betting light was spot on. He had been 3-betting me a lot on multiple tables and I had not been playing back, so I figured this was a good spot to re-squeeze. |
#9
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Re: 2/4 - Interesting QQ Preflop
Actually, scratch that. I'd shove still unless it's like one of those 15/10 nits I've seen around recently. As you showed above, with JJ in my range, you're fine, as you're putting in around 386 to win 866, so you need 44% equity. Even if you give me the range of AA-QQ, AK, you've still got 40% equity. (Pokerstove calculation below) Actually, if you make it KK+, it's almost the same.
equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 40.207% 38.35% 01.86% 114253440 5540034.00 { QQ } Hand 1: 59.793% 57.93% 01.86% 172607388 5540034.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo } Once you weigh in the fact that players 4-bet AK a higher percent of the time than AA/KK, which they call sometimes for deceptive purposes, that should bump your equity high enough. Note: when I say higher percentage of the time, I don't mean from your point of view. Obviously, since there are more combos of AK, you'll see it more often. What I mean is from my point of view. Many players will 4-bet AK much closer to 100% of the time they are 3-bet than they will with AA/KK. Sorry for the poorly constructed sentence, but I hope you get what I mean. EDIT: Oh, I forgot to mention that you should take into consideration the chance that the SB has QQ beaten, but I'm too tired to attempt that and I probably wouldn't know where to start anyways. |
#10
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Re: 2/4 - Interesting QQ Preflop
Man, I call on the button against CO raises more than 90% of msnl, but I hate it with QQ. Your hand is just so sick strong against his calling of your reraises range.
That said, I sometimes do call hands like AA/KK/QQ here when I know some aggro TAG is in the blinds. It is with 100% of intention of getting it all in versus a squeeze. |
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