Two Plus Two Newer Archives  

Go Back   Two Plus Two Newer Archives > Tournament Poker > STT Strategy
FAQ Community Calendar Today's Posts Search

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 08-02-2007, 04:08 AM
vMario vMario is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 219
Default Re: MP with JJ

nh. fold.
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 08-02-2007, 04:30 AM
RobertJohn RobertJohn is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 238
Default Re: MP with JJ

Readless this is a tough hand. If he is aggressive, when he c/r’s you here for your whole stack, his range is probably something like:

Any set, all of his suited Aces in diamonds, combo straight/flushdraws, a decent-to-strong Queen, King-Jack, QT for two-pair, and maybe (although not likely) middle pair with a strong kicker like AT or KT. I discount almost all of the AA and KK combos since he would have most likely 3-bet you preflop.

Your equity against that range ~ 38% so a call here would be +EV getting 2.16-to-one for all your chips. With these assumptions, shoving would yield a 330 chip expectation on average.

If you have a read that he is tight and would not be doing this with many weaker hands for value but would still semi-bluff his strongest draws, than your equity would be something like 32%, and shoving here would be very close to neutral EV (an expectation of 6 chips).

Only if you have reliable evidence that he would not c/r his draws, but would rather check-call with them (a weird assumption b/c the effective stack is so short), and that he would not do this with many hands weaker than a Queen, then you might be able to let this go, because you still do have ~19BBs to work with.

However, without a read, I probably felt this, but I am not too happy about it.
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 08-02-2007, 05:22 AM
impmaster impmaster is offline
Junior Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 13
Default Re: MP with JJ

I fold this too.
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 08-02-2007, 05:29 AM
RobertJohn RobertJohn is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 238
Default Re: MP with JJ

[ QUOTE ]
I fold this too.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah I miscounted the stacks, disregard my previous advice. I thought you had 200 less chips then you did. Now it becomes a fold.
Reply With Quote
Reply


Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 03:52 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.